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Carbon-based Border Tax Adjustments and China’s International Trade: Analysis based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

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  • Zhang, ZhongXiang
  • Tang, Ling
  • Bao, Qin
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

With large shares in global trade and carbon emissions, China’s international trade is supposed to be significantly affected by the proposed carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs). This paper examines the impacts of BTAs imposed by USA and EU on China’s international trade, based on a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation results suggest that BTAs would have a negative impact on China’s international trade in terms of large losses in both exports and imports. As an additional border tariff, BTAs will directly affect China’s exports by cutting down exports price level, whereas Chinese exporting enterprises will accordingly modify their strategies, significantly shifting from exports to domestic markets and from regions with BTAs policies towards other regions without them. Moreover, BTAs will affect China’s total imports and sectoral import through influencing the whole economy in an indirect but more intricate way. Furthermore, the simulation results for coping policies indicate that enhancing China’s power in world price determination and improving energy technology efficiency will effectively help mitigate the damages caused by BTAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, ZhongXiang & Tang, Ling & Bao, Qin & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Carbon-based Border Tax Adjustments and China’s International Trade: Analysis based on a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 249402, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ancewp:249402
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.249402
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    3. Tang, Ling & Shi, Jiarui & Bao, Qin, 2016. "Designing an emissions trading scheme for China with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 507-520.
    4. Zhong, Jiarui & Pei, Jiansuo, 2022. "Beggar thy neighbor? On the competitiveness and welfare impacts of the EU's proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Yuanying Chi & Zhengquan Guo & Yuhua Zheng & Xingping Zhang, 2014. "Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Apokin, Alexander (Апокин, Александр) & Gnidchenko, Andrey (Гнидченко, Андрей) & Sabelnikova, Ekaterina (Сабельникова, Екатерина), 2017. "Import Substitution Potential and Gains from Economic Integration: Disaggregated Estimations [Потенциал Импортозамещения И Выгоды От Экономической Интеграции: Дезагрегированные Оценки]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 44-71, April.
    7. Zhang, Zengkai & Zhu, Kunfu & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2017. "The effects of border-crossing frequencies associated with carbon footprints on border carbon adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 105-114.
    8. Fang, Yuan & Yu, Yugang & Shi, Ye & Liu, Jie, 2020. "The effect of carbon tariffs on global emission control: A global supply chain model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Banerjee, Suvajit, 2021. "Conjugation of border and domestic carbon adjustment and implications under production and consumption-based accounting of India's National Emission Inventory: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 68-86.
    10. Govinda R. Timilsina & Jing Cao & Mun Ho, 2018. "Carbon Tax For Achieving China’S Ndc: Simulations Of Some Design Features Using A Cge Model," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-17, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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