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Uncertainty and Adoption of Sustainable Farming Systems

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  • Pannell, David J.

Abstract

Uncertainty has been under-recognised as an impediment to the adoption of innovative land conservation practices. High levels of uncertainty inhibit adoption because (a) most farmers are psychologically averse to risk and uncertainty, (b) uncertainty leaves room for misunderstanding and misperceptions about the innovation and (c) in some cases there can be an option value from not trialing. A framework is presented that emphasises that adoption is a process involving collection, integration and evaluation of new information (i.e., reduction in uncertainty over time). Thereafter the paper discusses the range of factors that contribute to high uncertainty about conservation innovations, factors that reduce the potential for trials to reduce this uncertainty, and factors that contribute to the high cost of trials of conservation technologies. Some clear implications for policy approaches to land degradation are identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Pannell, David J., 1999. "Uncertainty and Adoption of Sustainable Farming Systems," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 124511, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare99:124511
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124511
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pannell, David J. & McFarlane, Donald J. & Ferdowsian, Ruhi, 2001. "Rethinking the externality issue for dryland salinity in Western Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(3), pages 1-17.
    2. Marshall, Graham R., 2003. "Towards a Resource Economics for Adaptive Managers," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57921, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Nunez, Jennifer & McCann, Laura M.J., 2004. "Crop Farmers' Willingness to Use Manure," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19932, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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