IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare03/57927.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations

Author

Listed:
  • Murray-Prior, Roy B.
  • Whish, J.
  • Carberry, Peter S.
  • Dalgleish, N.

Abstract

Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated with yields derived from biophysical simulations in APSIM over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from the Jimbour Plains farmer group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual GMs and distributions of GMs with box and whisker plots found to be suitable. Mean-standard deviation and first and second-degree stochastic dominance efficiency measures were also calculated. Including lucerne in the rotations improved some sustainability indicators but reduced profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Whish, J. & Carberry, Peter S. & Dalgleish, N., 2003. "Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57927, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare03:57927
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.57927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/57927/files/2003_murrayprioretal2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.57927?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meinke, H. & Baethgen, W. E. & Carberry, P. S. & Donatelli, M. & Hammer, G. L. & Selvaraju, R. & Stockle, C. O., 2001. "Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 493-513.
    2. John W. Cary & Roger L. Wilkinson, 1997. "Perceived Profitability And Farmers‘ Conservation Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 13-21, January.
    3. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, November.
    4. Rakesh K. Sarin & Martin Weber, 1993. "Effects of Ambiguity in Market Experiments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 602-615, May.
    5. Kingwell, Ross S., 1993. "Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm Wheat Supply," 1993 Conference (37th), February 9-11, 1993, Sydney, Australia 147706, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    7. Bathgate, Andrew & Pannell, David J., 2002. "Economics of deep-rooted perennials in western Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 117-132, February.
    8. Peter Bardsley & M. Harris, 1991. "Rejoinder: An Approach To The Econometric Estimation Of Attitudes To Risk In Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(3), pages 319-319, December.
    9. Pannell, David J., 1995. "Economic aspects of legume management and legume research in dryland farming systems of southern Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 217-236.
    10. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
    11. Kingwell, Ross S., 1993. "Effects of Tactical Responses and Risk Aversion on Farm Wheat Supply," 1993 Conference (37th), February 9-11, 1993, Sydney, Australia 147705, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. Kunreuther, Howard & Meszaros, Jacqueline & Hogarth, Robin M. & Spranca, Mark, 1995. "Ambiguity and underwriter decision processes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 337-352, May.
    13. Mukerji, Sujoy, 1998. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1207-1231, December.
    14. Bond, Gary E. & Wonder, Bernard, 1980. "Risk Attitudes Amongst Australian Farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, April.
    15. Gary E. Bond & Bernard Wonder, 1980. "Risk Attitudes Amongst Australian Farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 16-34, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farquharson, Robert J., 1991. "A Farm Level Evaluation of a New Twinning Technology in Beef Cattle," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(01), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Schilizzi, S. G. M. & Kingwell, R. S., 1999. "Effects of climatic and price uncertainty on the value of legume crops in a Mediterranean-type environment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 55-69, May.
    3. Arriaza Balmón, Manuel & Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio, 2003. "Modelling Farmers' Response To A Decoupled Subsidy Via Multi-Attribute Utility Theory And E-V Analysis," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25925, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Bard, Sharon K. & Barry, Peter J., 2000. "Developing A Scale For Assessing Risk Attitudes Of Agricultural Decision Makers," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17.
    5. John Quiggin, 1981. "Risk Perception And The Analysis Of Risk Attitudes," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(2), pages 160-169, August.
    6. Bartholomaeus, M.K. & Hardaker, J. Brian, 1981. "Farm Syndication And Risk Sharing: A Case Study," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 25(3), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Fisher, Brian S., 1985. "Frontiers in Agricultural Policy Research," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(02), pages 1-11, August.
    8. David J. Pannell, 1991. "Pests and pesticides, risk and risk aversion," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(4), pages 361-383, August.
    9. Abadi Ghadim, Amir K. & Pannell, David J., 1999. "A conceptual framework of adoption of an agricultural innovation," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 145-154, October.
    10. Ning Du & David V. Budescu, 2005. "The Effects of Imprecise Probabilities and Outcomes in Evaluating Investment Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1791-1803, December.
    11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:390-397 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Arriaza, Manuel & Riesgo, Laura, 2003. "An MCDM analysis of agricultural risk aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 569-585, December.
    13. Pannell, David J. & Nordblom, Thomas L., 1998. "Impacts of risk aversion on whole-farm management in Syria," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(3), pages 1-21.
    14. Gomez-Limon, Jose Antonio & Riesgo, Laura & Arriaza Balmón, Manuel, 2002. "Agricultural Risk Aversion Revisited: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), pages 1-31, December.
    16. L. Robin Keller & Rakesh K. Sarin & Jayavel Sounderpandian, 2007. "An examination of ambiguity aversion: Are two heads better than one?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 390-397, December.
    17. Monjardino, M. & McBeath, T. & Ouzman, J. & Llewellyn, R. & Jones, B., 2015. "Farmer risk-aversion limits closure of yield and profit gaps: A study of nitrogen management in the southern Australian wheatbelt," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 108-118.
    18. Arriaza Balmón, Manuel & Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Upton, Martin, 1997. "Local water markets for irrigation in southern Spain: A multicriteria approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-23.
    19. Pannell, David J. & Malcolm, Bill & Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 69-78, June.
    20. Shahab E. Saqib & Arifullah Arifullah & Muhammad Yaseen, 2021. "Managing farm-centric risks in agricultural production at the flood-prone locations of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 853-871, May.
    21. J. Hope & J. Lingard, 1992. "The Influence Of Risk Aversion On The Uptake Of Set‐Aside: A Motad And Crp Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 401-411, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare03:57927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.