IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare01/171982.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the World Wine Market to 2005: Impacts of Structural and Policy Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Wittwer, Glyn
  • Berger, Nicholas
  • Anderson, Kym

Abstract

This paper addresses the question: What will the global wine market look like by 2005, when premium wine from Australian and other New World plantings will be ready to market? It does so using a newly developed World Multisectoral Wine Model which distinguishes premium from non-premium grapes and wine. After describing the model, we present results of projecting it from 1999 to 2005 to estimate the impact of known winegrape plantings of the late 1990s on producer and consumer prices in different regions, without and then with additional effective market promotion by Australia. Using the latter 2005 scenario as the base, we then examine in turn the effects on the global market of a strengthening of the US dollar, of a spread of Pierce’s Disease in California, of a European trade policy response to the growth in premium wine exports from the New World, and of a reduction in wholesale and retail margins on beverage wines (thanks to expanding supermarket and internet sales). Production, trade and welfare results are provided for ten regions spanning the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Wittwer, Glyn & Berger, Nicholas & Anderson, Kym, 2001. "Modelling the World Wine Market to 2005: Impacts of Structural and Policy Changes," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 171982, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare01:171982
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.171982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/171982/files/Wittwer.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.171982?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 1999. "Impact Of East Asia’s Growth Interruption and Policy Responses: The Case Of Indonesia," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 125027, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
    4. Berger, Nicholas & Anderson, Kym, 1999. "Consumer And Import Taxes In The World Wine Market: Australia In International Perspective," 1999 Conference (43th), January 20-22, 1999, Christchurch, New Zealand 123770, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Mark Horridge, 2000. "ORANI-G: A General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-93, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Kym, 2001. "Where In The World Is The Wine Industry Going?," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide, Australia 125531, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Goodhue, Rachael E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Simon, Leo K., 2004. "We Should Drink No Wine Before Its Time," CUDARE Working Papers 25021, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. R. Carew & W. J. Florkowski & S. He, 2004. "Demand for Domestic and Imported Table Wine in British Columbia: A Source-differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 52(2), pages 183-199, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kym Anderson & David Norman & Glyn Wittwer, 2019. "Globalisation of the World’s Wine Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 2, pages 27-50, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Glyn Wittwer & Nick Berger & Kym Anderson, 2019. "A Model of the World’s Wine Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 1, pages 3-26, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    4. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "On the Distributional Effect of Carbon Tax in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200705, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Aug 2007.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. George Verikios, 2006. "Understanding the World Wool Market: Trade, Productivity and Grower Incomes. Part 5: Relative Returns to Australian Wool Producers of On- and Off-Farm Research," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-23, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Anderson, Kym & Yao, Shunli, 2003. "How Can South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa Gain From the Next WTO Round?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 466-481.
    8. Arief Yusuf & Budy Resosudarmo, 2015. "On the distributional impact of a carbon tax in developing countries: the case of Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(1), pages 131-156, January.
    9. Hugh Arce & Christopher Taylor, 1997. "The effects of changing U.S. MFN status for China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(4), pages 737-753, December.
    10. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    11. Pearson, Ken & Channing Arndt, 2000. "Implementing Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Using GEMPACK," GTAP Technical Papers 474, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    12. Joseph Francois & Julia Woerz, 0000. "Rags in the High Rent District: the Evolution of Quota Rents in Textiles and Clothing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-007/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Kym Anderson & Signe Nelgen & Ernesto Valenzuela & Glyn Wittwer, 2009. "Economic contributions and characteristics of grapes and wine in AustraliaÂ’s wine regions," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2009-01, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    15. E.A. Haddad & J. Bonet & G.J.D. Hewings & F.S. Perobelli, 2009. "Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 699-732, November.
    16. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Arief Ramayandi, 2010. "Reducing Fuel Subsidy or Taxing Carbon? Comparing the Two Instruments from the Economy, Environment, and Equity Perspectives for Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 58, pages 115-129, April.
    17. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    18. Mai, Yinhua, 2008. "Removing border protection on wheat and rice: effects on rural income and food self-sufficiency in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), pages 1-19.
    19. Tetsuji Tanaka & Jin Guo & Naruto Hiyama & Baris Karapinar, 2022. "Optimality Between Time of Estimation and Reliability of Model Results in the Monte Carlo Method: A Case for a CGE Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 151-176, January.
    20. Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and Nutrition Vulnerability," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49344, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare01:171982. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.