IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea98/20873.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cointegration Analysis Of Unbiased Expectations In The Biffex Freight Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Haigh, Michael S.

Abstract

The continued survival of the Baltic International Freight Futures Exchange (BIFFEX), based at the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), has come as a surprise to many critics of this unique futures market (the only futures contract on a service). The level of trading activity remains low and the number of players limited, and as a result, this has disappointed advocates of the use of derivatives in the shipping market. Therefore, in an effort to explain, at least partially, the reasons for its continued success, this paper tests long-term and short-term unbiasedness in the freight futures market with respect to its ability to unbiasedly predict future spot prices, using cointegration and error-correction techniques. Findings show that results from cointegrating regressions may falsely lead to the acceptance of unbiasedness by ignoring short-term dynamics. Results confirm that the freight futures market is "long-term" efficient but does experience "short-term" deviations. In light of these results, recent market developments are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Haigh, Michael S., 1998. "Cointegration Analysis Of Unbiased Expectations In The Biffex Freight Futures Market," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20873, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea98:20873
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/20873/files/sphaig01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.20873?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1997. "An evaluation of price linkages between futures and cash markets for cheddar cheese," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 279-301, May.
    3. Denning, Karen Craft & Riley, William B. & DeLooze, Jeffrey P., 1994. "Baltic freight futures: Random walk or seasonally predictable?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 399-428.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    3. Sinha, Avik & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: Role of renewable energy generation in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 703-711.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "Alternative measures of the monetary base: what are the differences and are they important?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 19-35.
    6. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
    7. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jan Koeman, 2017. "Does the Design of Spot Markets Matter for the Success of Futures Markets? Evidence from Dairy Futures," Working Papers in Economics 17/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. repec:lan:wpaper:2379 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2009. "Short-run deviations and time-varying hedge ratios: Evidence from agricultural futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 58-65, March.
    10. BOONE, Christophe & BROUWER, Aleid & JACOBS, Jan & VAN WITTELOOSTUIJN, Arjen, 2009. "Religious pluralism and organizational diversity: An empirical test for the city of Zwolle, the Netherlands, 1851-1914," Working Papers 2009003, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    11. Balakrishnan, Pulapre & Das, Mausumi & Parameswaran, M., 2017. "The internal dynamic of Indian economic growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 46-61.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mcgibany, James M. & Nourzad, Farrokh, 1995. "Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 411-425.
    14. Rashid, Shahidur, 2002. "Dynamics of agricultural wage and rice price in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Ali Darrat & Fatima Al-Shamsi, 2005. "On the path of integration in the Gulf region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1055-1062.
    16. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    17. Terence Tai Leung Chong & Wenqi Liu, 2017. "The roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 421-440, October.
    18. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Does the interest differential explain future exchange rate return? a re-examination of the UIP hypothesis for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jingjing Wang & Xiaoyang Wang, 2023. "Why is water illiquid?: The NQH2O water index futures," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 602-621, March.
    20. Ismail Genc, 2007. "A Timewise Specification Sensitive Look At Money Demand: An Analysis Of Us Data," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-17.
    21. Shu‐Hen Chiang, 2012. "The Source of Metropolitan Growth: The Role of Commuting," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 143-166, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea98:20873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.