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An Empirical study of the Economic Effects of Climate Change on World Agriculture

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  • Kane, Sally
  • Reilly, John
  • Tobey, James

Abstract

The economic effects of a doubling of carbon dioxide levels on world agriculture under what are termed "optimistic" and "pessimistic" crop response scenarios are empirically estimated. These effects include both changes in the prices of agricultural commodities as a result of changes in domestic agricultural yields, and changes in economic welfare following altered pricing and trade patterns of agricultural commodities. Under both scenarios, with a few exceptions, the effects on national economic welfare are found to be quite modest. However, prices of agricultural commodities are estimated to rise considerably under the pessimistic scenario. Increased agricultural prices reduce consumer surplus and diminish the benefits from climate change that some countries with predicted positive yield effects would otherwise receive.

Suggested Citation

  • Kane, Sally & Reilly, John & Tobey, James, 1990. "An Empirical study of the Economic Effects of Climate Change on World Agriculture," 1990 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Vancouver, Canada 270888, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea90:270888
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270888
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salathe, Larry E. & Price, J. Michael & Gadson, Kenneth E., 1982. "The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 34(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Willig, Robert D, 1976. "Consumer's Surplus without Apology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 589-597, September.
    3. Gadson, Kenneth E. & Price, J. Michael & Salathe, Larry E., 1982. "Food And Agricultural Policy Simulator (Fapsim): Structural Equations And Variable Definitions," Staff Reports 276743, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Roningen, Vernon Oley, 1986. "A Static World Policy Simulation (Swopsim) Modeling Framework," Staff Reports 277898, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. William H. Meyers & S. Devadoss & Michael D. Helmar, 1986. "Baseline Projections, Yield Impacts, and Trade Liberalization Impacts for Soybeans, Wheat, and Feed Grains: A FAPRI Trade Model Analysis," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 86-wp2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. William H. Meyers & S. Devadoss & Michael D. Helmar, 1986. "Baseline Projections, Yield Impacts, and Trade Liberalization Impacts for Soybeans, Wheat, and Feed Grains: A FAPRI Trade Model Analysis," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 86-wp2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. RICHARD M. Adams & DARIUS M. Adams & JOHN M. Callaway & CHING‐CHENG Chang & BRUCE A. Mccarl, 1993. "Sequestering Carbon On Agricultural Land: Social Cost And Impacts On Timber Markets," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 76-87, January.

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