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Futures Price Volatility: Modeling Non-Constant Variance

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  • Fackler, Paul L.

Abstract

A model is developed in which price variance is treated as a function of a deterministic seasonal component and a stochastic component which is conditional on past price changes. When applied to the corn futures market, both components are found to be significant. Implications for option pricing models are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fackler, Paul L., 1986. "Futures Price Volatility: Modeling Non-Constant Variance," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278172, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea86:278172
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278172
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278172/files/aaea-1986-112.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    6. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Jing-Yi & Myers, Robert J. & Hanson, Steven D., 2003. "Optimal On-Farm Grain Storage by Risk-Averse Farmers," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Wang, H. Holly & Hanson, Steven D. & Black, J. Roy, 2003. "Efficiency Costs of Subsidy Rules for Crop Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Roberts, Matthew C., 1999. "Mixture Distributions: Curing Commodity Kurtosis?," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21604, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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