IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea86/278167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Suggested Improvements

Author

Listed:
  • Kaylen, Michael S.

Abstract

Two methods for building vector autoregression forecasting models are proposed. The first allows exclusion of intermediate lags; the second considers •the effects of jointly entering lags from different series into an equation. Live hog market models are developed and out-of-sample forecasting results suggest both methods have merit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaylen, Michael S., 1986. "Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Suggested Improvements," 1986 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Reno, Nevada 278167, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea86:278167
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278167/files/aaea-1986-108.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278167?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Autoregressive modeling and causal ordering of economic variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 243-259, November.
    2. Caines, P. E. & Keng, C. W. & Sethi, S. P., 1981. "Causality analysis and multivariate Autoregressive modelling with an application to supermarket sales analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 267-298, November.
    3. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    4. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    5. Kling, John L. & Bessler, David A., 1985. "A comparison of multivariate forecasting procedures for economic time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 5-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Cheng, 1999. "Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(4), pages 422-434, December.
    2. Langley, Suchada Vichitakul, 1982. "The formation of price expectations: a case study of the soybean market," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800009358, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Erenburg, S. J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1995. "Public and private investment: Are there causal linkages?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30.
    4. Cheng, Benjamin S., 1999. "Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 911-924, December.
    5. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    6. Owen, C. Jane & Sporleder, Thomas L. & Bessler, David A., 1991. "Fabricated Cut Beef Prices As Leading Indicators Of Fed Cattle Price," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), pages 1-7, July.
    7. Thomas Gries & Manfred Kraft & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Financial deepening, trade openness and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4729-4739.
    8. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    9. Bailey, DeeVon & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1985. "Dynamics Of Regional Fed Cattle Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(01), pages 1-8, July.
    10. Chakraborty, Lekha S., 2006. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and crowding out: Evidence from India," Working Papers 06/43, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    11. W. Jos Jansen, 1998. "The mean-variance model with capital controls and expectations formation. A test on German portfolio data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 333-346.
    12. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    13. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
    14. Philipp Maier & Saskia Bezoen, 2002. "Central bank bashing: The case of the European Central Bank," Macroeconomics 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    16. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    17. Rodrigo Hakim das Neves, 2020. "Bitcoin pricing: impact of attractiveness variables," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Jerry A. Hausman & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present," NBER Working Papers 1133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Asghar, Zahid & Abid, Irum, 2007. "Performance of lag length selection criteria in three different situations," MPRA Paper 40042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1991. "Do Exchange Auctions Work? An Examination of the Bolivian Experience," NBER Working Papers 3683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea86:278167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.aaea.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.