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The Effect of Vacant Building Demolitions on Crime under Depopulation

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  • Plerhoples, Christina

Abstract

The United States government spent almost $200 million on vacant building demolitions between 2008 and 2011 under the Neighborhood Stabilization Program alone.2 One of the main justifications for these demolitions is that they reduce the crime caused by vacant buildings. However, it is unclear whether demolitions remove crime or merely displace it to other areas within a city. In this paper, I examine this question using block level monthly panel data from Saginaw, Michigan to estimate a Poisson fixed effects model of the effect of vacant building demolitions on crime. I also analyze the spatial impacts of demolitions through use of spatial lags of demolitions. To control for the endogeneity of crime and demolitions, I compare only those blocks that have had a demolition in that month to those that have a permit pending for a demolition. Initial results indicate that one demolition decreases crime over a six month period by 7.896 crimes, reduces violent crime by 3.906 crimes, and reduces property crime by 9.62 crimes. Using estimates from Levitt (2002), the cost effectiveness of these crime reductions is superior to that of police.

Suggested Citation

  • Plerhoples, Christina, 2012. "The Effect of Vacant Building Demolitions on Crime under Depopulation," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125003, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:125003
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.125003
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    1. Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2009. "Industrial Location at the Intra-Metropolitan Level: The Role of Agglomeration Economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 545-558.
    2. Dan Immergluck & Geoff Smith, 2006. "The external costs of foreclosure: The impact of single‐family mortgage foreclosures on property values," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-79.
    3. Austin Nichols, 2007. "IVPOIS: Stata module to estimate an instrumental variables Poisson regression via GMM," Statistical Software Components S456890, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2008.
    4. Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2009. "Industrial Location at the Intra-Metropolitan Level: The Role of Agglomeration Economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 545-558.
    5. Spelman, William, 1993. "Abandoned buildings: Magnets for crime?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 481-495.
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    1. Spader, Jonathan & Schuetz, Jenny & Cortes, Alvaro, 2016. "Fewer vacants, fewer crimes? Impacts of neighborhood revitalization policies on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 73-84.

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