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Closing the Eyes on a Gloomy Future: Psychological Causes and Economic Consequences

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  • Laajaj, Rachid

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of economic prospects on one’s time preference. Research in psychol- ogy has shown how individuals modify their preferences in order to reduce their cognitive dissonance, which is the uncomfortable tension felt when simultaneously holding conflicting thoughts. It occurs among the poor when simultaneously caring about their future welfare while having gloomy economic prospects. Hence closing their eyes on the future can reduce their psychological distress at the cost of worsening their future economic wellbeing. This paper offers a new theoretical approach that decom- poses time discounting and analyzes the endogenous determination of one’s time horizon. The model predicts that, below a certain wealth, the time horizon of an individual is decreasing in poverty, result- ing in a behavioral poverty trap. The prediction is tested using data from a randomized experiment in Mozambique, which confirms that the beneficiaries of an agro-input subsidy and a matched savings intervention increased their planning horizon as a result of their improved economic prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Laajaj, Rachid, 2012. "Closing the Eyes on a Gloomy Future: Psychological Causes and Economic Consequences," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 123933, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:123933
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.123933
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    Cited by:

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    2. Axelrod, David, 2017. "Optimizing Discount Rates: Expressing Preferences for Sustainable Outcomes in Present Value Calculations," MPRA Paper 84408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 976-990, July.
    4. Marc Labie & Carolina Laureti & Ariane Szafarz, 2016. "Discipline and Flexibility: A Behavioral Perspective on Product Design in Microfinance," Working Papers CEB 15-020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Macours, Karen, 2012. "Volatility, Risk and Household Poverty: Micro-evidence from Randomized Control Trials," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 128293, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Thompson, William W. & Janzen, Sarah A. & Magnan, Nicholas P. & Sharma, Sudhindra, 2015. "Social Drivers of Aspirations Formation and Failure in Rural Nepal," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205757, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. David Allen Axelrod, 2019. "Experiences, Choice and Well-Being: An Economics of Psychological Energy," Proceedings of the 12th International RAIS Conference, April 3-4, 2019 1AAD, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    8. Meysonnat, Aline & Muysken, Joan & Zon, Adriaan van, 2015. "Poverty traps: the neglected role of vitality," MERIT Working Papers 2015-052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; Consumer/Household Economics; Institutional and Behavioral Economics;
    All these keywords.

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