IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea11/103637.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change Influences On The Risk Of Avian Influenza Outbreaks And Associated Economic Loss

Author

Listed:
  • Mu, Jianhong H.
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Wu, Ximing
  • Gan, Li

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that climate has on Avian Influenza outbreak probability. The statistical analysis shows across a broad region the probability of an outbreak declines by 0.22% when the temperature rises 1 Celsius degree and increases by 0.34% when precipitation increases by 1millimeter. These results indicate that the realized climate change of the last 20 years not only has been a factor behind recent HPAI outbreaks, but that climate change is likely to play an even greater role in the future. The statistical results indicate that overall, the risk of an AI outbreak has been increased by 51% under past climate change and 3-4% under future climate change. An economic evaluation shows the increased probability of outbreaks has caused damages of about $107 million in China and $29 million in the United States due to past climate change. In the year of 2011-2030, for countries with a high proportion of chicken production, economic loss could reach $105-$146 million in China and $12-$18 million in the United Sates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing & Gan, Li, 2011. "Climate Change Influences On The Risk Of Avian Influenza Outbreaks And Associated Economic Loss," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103637, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103637
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.103637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/103637/files/Climate_Change_Influences_on_the_Risk_of_Avian_Influenza_Outbreaks_and_Associated_Economic_Lossx.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.103637?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seung C. Ahn & Gareth M. Thomas, 2023. "Likelihood-based inference for dynamic panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2859-2909, June.
    2. Hendrik Thiel & Stephan L. Thomsen, 2015. "Individual Poverty Paths and the Stability of Control-Perception," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 794, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. Sara Ayllón, 2015. "Youth Poverty, Employment, and Leaving the Parental Home in Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(4), pages 651-676, December.
    4. Giulia Bettin & Claudia Pigini & Alberto Zazzaro, 2023. "Lifting You up or Dragging You Down? The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Transitions Among Italian Households," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(3), pages 606-639, September.
    5. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2005. "Employment Dynamics of Married Women in Europe," Working Papers WR-273, RAND Corporation.
    6. Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2011. "Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 641-668, June.
    7. Gong, Xiaodong & Van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2004. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-36, October.
    8. Georges Dionne & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Maki Dahchour, 2004. "Separating Moral Hazard from Adverse Selection in Automobile Insurance: Longitudinal Evidence from France," Cahiers de recherche 0420, CIRPEE.
    9. Sara Ayllón Gatnau, 2009. "Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth," Economics Working Papers 1180, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    10. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    11. Segarra-Blasco, Agustí & Teruel, Mercedes & Cattaruzzo, Sebastiano, 2021. "The economic reaction to non-pharmaceutical interventions during Covid-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 592-608.
    12. Welsch, David M. & Winden, Matthew W. & Zimmer, David M., 2022. "The effect of flood mitigation spending on flood damage: Accounting for dynamic feedback," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    13. Xiaodong Gong, 2017. "The dynamics of study-work choice and its effect on intended and actual university attainment," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-639, November.
    14. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Sonia Bhalotra & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Birth Spacing and Neonatal Mortality in India: Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/567, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    16. Bartolucci, Francesco & Nigro, Valentina, 2012. "Pseudo conditional maximum likelihood estimation of the dynamic logit model for binary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 102-116.
    17. Khwaja, Ahmed, 2010. "Estimating willingness to pay for medicare using a dynamic life-cycle model of demand for health insurance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 130-147, May.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0051 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    20. Fernández-Val, Iván & Vella, Francis, 2011. "Bias corrections for two-step fixed effects panel data estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 144-162, August.
    21. Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2011. "Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 641-668, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea11:103637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.