IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6569.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Farmland Values, Government Payments, and the Overall Risk to U.S. Agriculture: A Structural Equation-Latent Variable Model

Author

Listed:
  • Mishra, Ashok K.
  • Dedah, Cheikhna O.

Abstract

According to Ricardian rent theory, the value of farm assets is equal to the discounted present value of future expected net rents from farm returns, and the discounted expected value of the land if converted to nonfarm development. Some recent research has considered modifying this standard present value model by acknowledging that returns from the market may be discounted at a different interest rate than returns from government payments (Goodwin, Mishra, and Ortal-Magne) and also that the discount rate itself may be time-varying. However, very little research has considered how changes in the overall risk to agriculture may affect farmland values. An exception is Moss, Shonkwiler and Schmitz (2004). We use time series panel data from the USDA for United States, 1960-2004 and a structural equations model with latent variables for the rate of return on farm assets and for the real risk-adjusted interest rate. We find that a secondary effect of agricultural policies that reduces the overall risk to agriculture may increase farmland values (and thus farm sector wealth). Government payments are offsetting the negative impact of high volatility of returns to farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishra, Ashok K. & Dedah, Cheikhna O., 2008. "Farmland Values, Government Payments, and the Overall Risk to U.S. Agriculture: A Structural Equation-Latent Variable Model," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6569, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6569
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6569
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6569/files/sp08mi02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6569?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio H. Lence & Ashok K. Mishra, 2003. "The Impacts of Different Farm Programs on Cash Rents," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 753-761.
    2. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    3. Bjornson, Bruce & Innes, Robert, 1992. "Risk And Return In Agriculture: Evidence From An Explicit-Factor Arbitrage Pricing Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Peter J. Barry, 1980. "Capital Asset Pricing and Farm Real Estate," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 549-553.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Ashok K. Mishra & Carmen L. Sandretto, 2002. "Stability of Farm Income and the Role of Nonfarm Income in U.S. Agriculture," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 208-221.
    7. Barry K. Goodwin & Ashok K. Mishra & François N. Ortalo-Magné, 2003. "What's Wrong with Our Models of Agricultural Land Values?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 744-752.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Xin, 2016. "The Farmland Valuation Revisited," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    3. Golub, Alexander (Голуб, Александр), 2018. "Methodological Issues of Assessing Investment Risks in Projects Weakening the Dependence of the Russian Economy on Natural Resources and Providing a Transition to Low-Carbon Development [Методологи," Working Papers 071802, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Jerzy Michalek & Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs, 2014. "Capitalization of the Single Payment Scheme into Land Value: Generalized Propensity Score Evidence from the European Union," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(2), pages 260-289.
    5. Jo, Eun Hye & Lee, Jung Wha, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and managerial short-termism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Seokbeom Kwon & Jan Youtie & Alan Porter & Nils Newman, 2024. "How does regulatory uncertainty shape the innovation process? Evidence from the case of nanomedicine," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 262-302, February.
    7. Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1998. "Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?," Kiel Working Papers 899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    9. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    10. Collier Paul & Venables Anthony J., 2012. "Land Deals in Africa: Pioneers and Speculators," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Paxson, Christina H & Sicherman, Nachum, 1996. "The Dynamics of Dual Job Holding and Job Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 357-393, July.
    12. Mahmudul Anam & Shin-Hwan Chiang & Lieng Hua, 2008. "Uncertainty and International Migration: An Option Cum Portfolio Model," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 236-250, September.
    13. Krüger, Niclas A. & Svensson, Mikael, 2009. "The impact of real options on willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 563-569, May.
    14. Per Botolf Maurseth, 2005. "Lovely but dangerous: The impact of patent citations on patent renewal," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 351-374.
    15. Dirk Czarnitzki & Andrew Toole, 2007. "Business R&D and the Interplay of R&D Subsidies and Product Market Uncertainty," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 31(3), pages 169-181, November.
    16. Sina Atari & Yassine Bakkar & Eunice Omolola Olaniyi & Gunnar Prause, 2019. "Real options analysis of abatement investments for sulphur emission control compliance," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1062-1087, March.
    17. Zou, Baoling & Mishra, Ashok K. & Luo, Biliang, 2018. "Aging population, farm succession, and farmland usage: Evidence from rural China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 437-445.
    18. Insley, Margaret, 2017. "Resource extraction with a carbon tax and regime switching prices: Exercising your options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-16.
    19. Czyżewski, Bazyli & Trojanek, Radosław, 2016. "Drivers of agricultural land prices in terms of different functions of rural areas in Poland," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 249742, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    20. Thu Phuong Pham & Anh Tuan Bui, 2007. "The time to shut down," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(14), pages 1-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Farm Management; Land Economics/Use;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6569. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.