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Green Revolution Counterfactuals

Author

Listed:
  • Evenson, Robert E.
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Msangi, Siwa
  • Sulser, Timothy B.

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct two "counterfactual" simulations for the 30-year period 1970-2000-the first holding 1970 crop genetic improvements (CGI) constant and the second presuming the International Agricultural Research Center (IARC) system had not been built. Both these counterfactuals apply to developing countries only. The core estimates on which the counterfactuals are based include country fixed effects , and the key estimates are for the Dietary Energy Sufficiency (DES) equation. DES affects birth rates, death rates, child mortality rates and malnutrition rates, making it possible to "endogenize" population growth in developing countries, in the counterfactuals. Reduced DES levels (from reduced CGI contributions) will lead to more births, more deaths and more child deaths and higher levels of malnutrition. The key technology variables that determine DES are the number of agricultural scientists per million hectares of cropland, the average years of schooling of adult males (over 25), and the level of Green Revolution Modern Varieties (GRMV) adoption. Our results show striking contrasts between the historical record and the alternative counterfactuals. The worst outcome is that without any Green Revolution Technologies or an IARC system to support it, which results in holding technological advancements constant at the 1970 level is a marginal improvement, leading to much higher prices over time, as agricultural production struggles to keep up with food demand in those countries. The endogenous feedback effects of population show the importance of nutrition and education, and argue strongly in favor of those factors playing a significant role in the improvement of human well-being that has been observed since the start of the Green Revolution to present.

Suggested Citation

  • Evenson, Robert E. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Msangi, Siwa & Sulser, Timothy B., 2006. "Green Revolution Counterfactuals," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21363, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21363
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21363
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huffman, Wallace E. & Evenson, Robert E., 2003. "New Econometric Evidence On Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Determinants: Impact Of Funding Sources," Working Papers 18201, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Svendsen, Mark, 1993. "Asian food production in the 1990s : Irrigation investment and management policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 13-32, February.
    3. Delgado, C.L. & Wada, N. & Rosegrant, M.W. & Meijer, S. & Ahmed, M., 2003. "Fish to 2020: supply and demand in changing global markets," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 15796, April.
    4. Julian M. Alston & Philip G. Pardey, 1996. "Making Science Pay: The Economics of Agricultural R&D Policy," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53242, September.
    5. Mark W. Rosegrant & Prabhu L. Pingali, 1994. "Policy and technology for rice productivity growth in Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(6), pages 665-688, November.
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