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Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model

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  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Sanders, Dwight R.

Abstract

Myers and Thompson (1989) noted that the model specification could have a large impact on the hedge ratio estimated. A huge literature exists on estimating hedge ratios, but the literature is lacking a formal treatment of model specification uncertainty. This research accomplishes that task by taking a Bayesian approach to hedge ratio estimation, where specification uncertainty is explicitly modeled. The methodology is applied to data on hedging of corn and soybeans and on cross-hedging of corn oil using soybean oil futures. Results show the potential benefits and insights gained from such an approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2005. "Generalized Hedge Ratio Estimation with an Unknown Model," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19268, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19268
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 1994. "The Empirical Minimum-Variance Hedge," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(1), pages 94-104.
    2. Julian M. Alston & James A. Chalfant, 1993. "The Silence of the Lambdas: A Test of the Almost Ideal and Rotterdam Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 304-313.
    3. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    4. Dorfman, J.H. & Lastrapes, W.D., 1993. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis using Long Run Restrictions," Papers 429, Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics.
    5. B. Wade Brorsen & Darren W. Buck & Stephen R. Koontz, 1998. "Hedging hard red winter wheat: Kansas City versus Chicago," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 449-466, June.
    6. Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
    7. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
    8. Poirier, Dale J, 1991. "A Bayesian View of Nominal Money and Real Output through a New Classical Macroeconomic Window," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(2), pages 125-148, April.
    9. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
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    Cited by:

    1. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "The Shape of the Optimal Hedge Ratio: Modeling Joint Spot-Futures Prices using an Empirical Copula-GARCH Model," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37609, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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