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Market Perspectives for the Livestock Sector in Africa: a vector autoregressive approach

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  • Acosta, Alejandro

Abstract

The development path that the livestock sector follows in Africa will have important economic, social and environmental implications for the region. In recent years, livestock development has become highly market driven in Africa. In this regards, several studies have attempted to project the future market perspectives for the livestock sector. Most of these studies have used theory-based simultaneous equations model approaches. This paper argues that under the complex dynamics that characterize the market for livestock products in Africa a Vector Autoregressive model could be a more appropriate methodological approach. The results show that size of the livestock market in Africa can be partly explained by the past realizations of each subsector, the cross feedback effect of other subsectors, and the changes in the levels of gross national income and population. The paper highlights that market size for livestock products in Africa by 2030 could fluctuate considerably depending on the level of economic growth achieved in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Acosta, Alejandro, 2016. "Market Perspectives for the Livestock Sector in Africa: a vector autoregressive approach," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246451, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaae16:246451
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.246451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Abadir, Karim M & Hadri, Kaddour, 2000. "Is More Information a Good Thing? Bias Nonmonotonicity in Stochastic Difference Equations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 91-100, April.
    3. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2012. "Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing;

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