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Testing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Author

Listed:
  • Samson N. Okafor

    (Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria)

  • Chukwunonso Ekesiobi

    (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Nigeria)

  • Ogonna Ifebi

    (Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Nigeria)

  • Stephen K. Dimnwobi

    (NnamdiAzikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria)

  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (Yaoundé, Cameroon)

Abstract

Aware of the nature of deficits in the current account, fiscal account, and the financial account balances of the countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, this inquiry assessed the relationship between these deficits and the implication of such relationship for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). To do this, the study adopted panel data analysis techniques using the Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) specifications to test for the Triple Deficit Hypothesis (TDH) in the region. The findings of the study revealed the presence of the TDH in SSA where bidirectional causality exists between current account balance and budget balance, and between saving gap and current account balance, with a unidirectional causality running from budget balance to saving gap. The adoption of sound fiscal, monetary, and trade interventions in the region constitutes the major policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Samson N. Okafor & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ogonna Ifebi & Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Testing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/093, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:21/093
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    Cited by:

    1. Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Dimnwobi, Stephen Kelechi & Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso & Onuoha, Favour Chidinma, 2023. "Turning the tide on energy poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: Does public debt matter?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    2. Stephen K. Dimnwobi & Favour C. Onuoha & Benedict I. Uzoechina & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ebele S. Nwokoye, 2022. "Does Public Capital Expenditure Reduce Energy Poverty? Evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers 22/033, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Onuoha, Favour Chidinma & Dimnwobi, Stephen Kelechi & Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Ekesiobi, Chukwunonso, 2023. "Funding the green transition: Governance quality, public debt, and renewable energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Bruno Ibekilo & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Precious Muhammed Emmanuel, 2023. "Heterogeneous assessment of urbanisation, energy consumption and environmental pollution in Africa: the role of regulatory quality," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4421-4444, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Triple Deficit Hypothesis; Sub-Saharan Africa; African Continental Free Trade Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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