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Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey Bounds Test Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Merter Akinci
  • Ömer Yilmaz

Abstract

The current account deficits that reached the critical proportions together with the acceleration of the globalization process, have exited considerable interest among researchers and policy makers. To have a clear understanding of its role in macroeconomic outcomes, a lot of researches were made and these showed that increasing current deficits had dragged the countries into the financial crises. Therefore, due to its growing importance for all countries, the relationships among the current deficits, saving deficits and budget deficits of Turkey in the period of 1975 – 2010 were analysed through econometrical methods. Time series datas belong to the variables were tested with ADF and PP unit root tests and it was observed that the variable of the current deficit was stable in its level value and the variables of the saving deficit and budget deficit were stable in their first difference values. In order to determine the cointegration relationship between the variables, the bounds test analysis was applied and the cointegrated relations between the variables was found. The results of the analysis showed that the saving deficits an budget deficits had a positive effect on the current deficits both in short and long-run and triple deficits were valid for the Turkish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Merter Akinci & Ömer Yilmaz, 2012. "Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey Bounds Test Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(50), pages 1-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:bor:iserev:v:13:y:2012:i:50:p:1-28
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    File URL: http://www.borsaistanbul.com/datum/imkbdergi/EN/ISE_Review_50.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hardjo Koerniadi & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti & Alireza Tourani-Rad, 2014. "Corporate governance and the variability of stock returns," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(4), pages 494-510, August.
    2. Vitaliy Zheka, 2006. "Corporate Governance and Firm Performance in Ukraine," CERT Discussion Papers 0605, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samson Nonso Okafor & Chukwunonso Ekesiobi & Ogonna Ifebi & Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "Testing the triple deficit hypothesis for sub‐Saharan Africa: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 142-153, March.
    2. Shruti Shastri & A. K. Giri & Geetilaxmi Mohapatra, 2017. "Assessing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Major South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 292-299.
    3. Rahman Olanrewaju Raji, 2019. "Testing the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Nigeria," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 4(2), pages 89-109, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current Account Deficits; Saving Deficits; Budget Deficits; Triple Deficits; Bounds Test Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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