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A Bayesian Analysis of Total Factor Productivity Persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Tapas Mishra

    (Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, University of Wales, UK.)

  • Claude Diebolt
  • Mamata Parhi
  • Asit Ranjan Mohanty

Abstract

This paper studies persistence properties of total factor productivity (TFP) from Bayesian perspective. Emphasizing that classical unit root test for TFP cannot determine the probability whether a stochastic shock to the series is permanent, we design a Bayesian unit root test for TFP. Examination for a set of African economies' TFP data show that the probability of having a unit root is very high for majority of countries. The evidence of high-persistence has implications for perpetual growth and business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt & Mamata Parhi & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2009. "A Bayesian Analysis of Total Factor Productivity Persistence," Working Papers 09-10, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:09-10
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Luc Demeulemeester & Claude Diebolt, 2011. "Education and Growth: What Links for Which Policy?," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 36(4), pages 323-346.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. David Le Bris, 2009. "The French Stock Market in War," Working Papers 09-01, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Steven N. Durlauf, 1989. "Output Persistence, Economic Structure, and the Choice of Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 69-136.
    5. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    7. Koop, G, 1992. "Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
    8. David Le Bris & Pierre-Cyrille Hautcoeur, 2009. "A Challenge to Triumphant Optimists? A New Index for the Paris Stock-Exchange (1854-2007)," Working Papers 09-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Total factor productivity; Persistence; Bayesian unit root; Innovation; Business cycle fluctuations.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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