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Suavización Del Consumo En Argentina

Author

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  • Mira Pablo
  • Bertholet Nicolás

Abstract

Se evalúan los determinantes del consumo privado agregado en Argentina, utilizando modelos VEC y VAR para una base de datos anual (1950-2022) y luego una trimestral (1993-2022). Los resultados no parecen dar sustento al modelo teórico tradicional que asocia el crecimiento del consumo con variaciones en la tasa de interés real. Nuestras estimaciones indican en cambio que la propensión marginal a consumir en tasas del ingreso es 0.92 (serie anual) y 1.38 (serie trimestral). Además, los ejercicios de impulso-respuesta verifican que las perturbaciones en el ingreso se trasladan al consumo de manera inmediata y con mucha intensidad, completándo se en apenas un año en la serie anual, y en medio año en la serie trimestral. La prescripción general es que si el sector privado no suaviza su gasto ante cambios en el ingreso, debe hacerlo el sector público mediante la política anticíclica.

Suggested Citation

  • Mira Pablo & Bertholet Nicolás, 2024. "Suavización Del Consumo En Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4746, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4746
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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