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Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda

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  • Daniel Puig

    (Technical University of Denmark)

  • Fatemeh Bakhtiari

    (Technical University of Denmark)

Abstract

Decision making for climate change management seldom incorporates uncertainty in the analysis that underpins the policy process. First, uncertainty is seldom characterised fully, and attempts to reduce uncertainty—when this is possible—are rare. Second, scientists are ill-equipped to communicate about uncertainty with policy makers, and policy makers most often favour pretended certainty over nuance and detail. Third, the uncertainty analysis that may have been conducted most often fails to actually influence policy in a significant manner. The case is made for (i) characterising and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainty, (ii) communicating uncertainty, and (iii) reflecting uncertainty in the design of policy initiatives for climate change management. Possible elements for a research agenda on each of these areas are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Puig & Fatemeh Bakhtiari, 2019. "Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 86-89, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jenvss:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13412-018-0514-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s13412-018-0514-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel PUIG & Oswaldo Morales-Napoles & Fatemeh Bakhtiari & Gissela Landa Rivera, 2017. "The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Daniel Puig & Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles & Fatemeh Bakhtiari & Gissela Landa, 2017. "The accountability imperative for quantifiying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico," Working Papers hal-03389325, HAL.
    3. Jan H. Kwakkel & Sibel Eker & Erik Pruyt, 2016. "How Robust is a Robust Policy? Comparing Alternative Robustness Metrics for Robust Decision-Making," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis & Evangelos Grigoroudis (ed.), Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics, chapter 0, pages 221-237, Springer.
    4. Joeri Rogelj & Oliver Fricko & Malte Meinshausen & Volker Krey & Johanna J. J. Zilliacus & Keywan Riahi, 2017. "Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cu79nktr182k9k26ecvt6f8p2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Warren E. Walker & Vincent A. W. J. Marchau & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Wil A. H. Thissen & Warren E. Walker (ed.), Public Policy Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 215-261, Springer.
    8. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.
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