IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jenvss/v9y2019i1d10.1007_s13412-018-0514-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Puig

    (Technical University of Denmark)

  • Fatemeh Bakhtiari

    (Technical University of Denmark)

Abstract

Decision making for climate change management seldom incorporates uncertainty in the analysis that underpins the policy process. First, uncertainty is seldom characterised fully, and attempts to reduce uncertainty—when this is possible—are rare. Second, scientists are ill-equipped to communicate about uncertainty with policy makers, and policy makers most often favour pretended certainty over nuance and detail. Third, the uncertainty analysis that may have been conducted most often fails to actually influence policy in a significant manner. The case is made for (i) characterising and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainty, (ii) communicating uncertainty, and (iii) reflecting uncertainty in the design of policy initiatives for climate change management. Possible elements for a research agenda on each of these areas are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Puig & Fatemeh Bakhtiari, 2019. "Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 86-89, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jenvss:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13412-018-0514-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s13412-018-0514-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13412-018-0514-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13412-018-0514-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel PUIG & Oswaldo Morales-Napoles & Fatemeh Bakhtiari & Gissela Landa Rivera, 2017. "The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Daniel Puig & Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles & Fatemeh Bakhtiari & Gissela Landa, 2017. "The accountability imperative for quantifiying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico," Working Papers hal-03389325, HAL.
    3. Joeri Rogelj & Oliver Fricko & Malte Meinshausen & Volker Krey & Johanna J. J. Zilliacus & Keywan Riahi, 2017. "Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    4. Hélène Benveniste & Olivier Boucher & Céline Guivarch & Hervé Le Treut & Patrick Criqui, 2018. "Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions," Post-Print hal-01662799, HAL.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cu79nktr182k9k26ecvt6f8p2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jan H. Kwakkel & Sibel Eker & Erik Pruyt, 2016. "How Robust is a Robust Policy? Comparing Alternative Robustness Metrics for Robust Decision-Making," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis & Evangelos Grigoroudis (ed.), Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics, chapter 0, pages 221-237, Springer.
    7. Warren E. Walker & Vincent A. W. J. Marchau & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Uncertainty in the Framework of Policy Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Wil A. H. Thissen & Warren E. Walker (ed.), Public Policy Analysis, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 215-261, Springer.
    8. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    2. Andrzej Magruk, 2021. "Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Heikkila, Jaakko & Peltola, Jukka, 2005. "Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24679, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Monika Winn & Manfred Kirchgeorg & Andrew Griffiths & Martina K. Linnenluecke & Elmar Günther, 2011. "Impacts from climate change on organizations: a conceptual foundation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 157-173, March.
    5. Arun S. Malik & Stephen C. Smith, 2012. "Adaptation To Climate Change In Low-Income Countries: Lessons From Current Research And Needs From Future Research," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-22.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S., 2012. "Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 289-303.
    7. Husain, Shaiara & Sohag, Kazi & Wu, Yanrui, 2022. "The response of green energy and technology investment to climate policy uncertainty: An application of twin transitions strategy," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Geoffrey Heal, 2008. "Climate Economics: A Meta-Review and Some Suggestions," NBER Working Papers 13927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. B. Sudhakara Reddy & Gaudenz B. Assenza, 2008. "The Great climate debate : A Developing country perspective," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    10. Robert S. Pindyck, 2011. "Fat Tails, Thin Tails, and Climate Change Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 258-274, Summer.
    11. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Exploring the energy system impacts of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions and low-carbon transition to mid-century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Sferra, Fabio & Krapp, Mario & Roming, Niklas & Schaeffer, Michiel & Malik, Aman & Hare, Bill & Brecha, Robert, 2019. "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Bramoullé, Yann & Orset, Caroline, 2018. "Manufacturing doubt," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 119-133.
    15. Hurford, A.P. & Harou, J.J. & Bonzanigo, L. & Ray, P.A. & Karki, P. & Bharati, L. & Chinnasamy, P., 2020. "Efficient and robust hydropower system design under uncertainty - A demonstration in Nepal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Narita, Daiju & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2011. "Expectation-driven climate treaties with breakthrough technologies," Kiel Working Papers 1732, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2024. "Uncertainty and climate change: The IPCC approach vs decision theory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Haas, Christian & Kempa, Karol & Moslener, Ulf, 2023. "Dealing with deep uncertainty in the energy transition: What we can learn from the electricity and transportation sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Ruda Zhang & Patrick Wingo & Rodrigo Duran & Kelly Rose & Jennifer Bauer & Roger Ghanem, 2020. "Environmental Economics and Uncertainty: Review and a Machine Learning Outlook," Papers 2004.11780, arXiv.org.
    20. Makropoulou, Vasiliki & Dotsis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2013. "Environmental policy implications of extreme variations in pollutant stock levels and socioeconomic costs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 417-428.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jenvss:v:9:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13412-018-0514-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.