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Economic Growth, Technological Change, and the Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia

In: From Growth to Convergence

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  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Carlos E. Ludena
  • Alla A. Golub

Abstract

As growth in Asia continues to outpace that in the rest of the world, attention has once again focused on primary commodity markets. Rapidly growing demand, coupled with relatively inelastic supply, have been boosting prices for agricultural, energy, and mineral products. This chapter projects potential outcomes in this footrace between supply and demand for the year 2025, with a particular emphasis on food markets. It begins with an in-depth analysis of the fundamental drivers of change, including per capita consumer demand, population growth, accumulation of capital and labor, endowments of land by agro-ecological zone, as well as technological change. The last is found to be the critical factor in determining whether or not food prices will reverse their long-run downward trend, as well as determining the likely patterns of trade and structural change. Yet this aspect of economic growth is still not well understood.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas W. Hertel & Carlos E. Ludena & Alla A. Golub, 2009. "Economic Growth, Technological Change, and the Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Fan Zhai (ed.), From Growth to Convergence, chapter 6, pages 175-210, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-25060-4_6
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230250604_6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tim J. Coelli & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: a Malmquist index analysis of 93 countries, 1980–2000," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 115-134, January.
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    4. Channing Arndt & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Bridging the Gap between Partial and Total Factor Productivity Measures Using Directional Distance Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 928-942.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    6. Nin, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth & Rae, Allan, 2004. "Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China's meat trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rose, Steven K. & Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Sohngen, Brent, 2012. "Relative agricultural productivity and tropical deforestation," Conference papers 332227, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross Domestic Product; Productivity Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Trade Balance; Total Factor Productivity Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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