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Pension Reform, Incentives to Retire and Retirement Behavior: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Microdata

In: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Effects of Reforms on Retirement Behavior

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  • Lisa Laun
  • Mårten Palme

Abstract

This paper investigates to what extent the 1998 reform of Sweden’s public old-age pension system contributed to the increase in extensive margin labor supply among older workers seen in the country in recent decades. We use a large data set containing all males and females born in Sweden between 1927 and 1950 and observe their retirement behavior during 1991–2012. The data show that the reform changed the incentives to remain in the labor force ambiguously: although it induced an income effect towards later retirement through lower replacement levels,it also implied a lower price on leaving the labor market under some assumptions. We use an econometric model in which the economic incentives to stay in the labor market are measured by Social Security Wealth, defined at each hypothetical retirement age, and a variable measuring the implicit tax, imposed by the income security system, on staying in the labor force. The point estimates from our econometric model, which should be interpreted with caution, suggest that at most a small part of the increase in labor force participation of the elderly can be attributed to the pension reform.
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Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Laun & Mårten Palme, 2023. "Pension Reform, Incentives to Retire and Retirement Behavior: Empirical Evidence from Swedish Microdata," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Effects of Reforms on Retirement Behavior, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Håkan Selin, 2017. "What happens to the husband’s retirement decision when the wife’s retirement incentives change?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 432-458, June.
    2. Karlström, Anders & Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2008. "The employment effect of stricter rules for eligibility for DI: Evidence from a natural experiment in Sweden," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(10-11), pages 2071-2082, October.
    3. Tammy Schirle, 2008. "Why Have the Labor Force Participation Rates of Older Men Increased since the Mid-1990s?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 549-594, October.
    4. Laun, Lisa, 2017. "The effect of age-targeted tax credits on labor force participation of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 102-118.
    5. Laun, Tobias & Wallenius, Johanna, 2015. "A life cycle model of health and retirement: The case of Swedish pension reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 127-136.
    6. Marten Palme & Annika Sundén & Paul Söderlind, 2007. "How Do Individual Accounts Work in the Swedish Pension System?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 636-646, 04-05.
    7. Gustman, Alan L & Steinmeier, Thomas L, 2000. "Retirement in Dual-Career Families: A Structural Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 503-545, July.
    8. Agell, Jonas & Englund, Peter & Sodersten, Jan, 1996. "Tax Reform of the Century -- the Swedish Experiment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 643-664, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pawel Chrostek & Krzysztof Karbownik & Michal Myck, 2024. "Labor Market Externalities of Pre-Retirement Employment Protection," CESifo Working Paper Series 11078, CESifo.
    2. Arizo Karimi & Charlotte Lucke & Mårten Palme, 2024. "Components of the evolution of income inequality in Sweden, 1990–2021," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 187-204, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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