IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/12744.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy Besley
  • Neil Meads
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

This paper uses a unique data set on more than 600,000 mortgage contracts to estimate a credit supply function which allows for risk-heterogeneity. Non-linearity is modeled using quantile regressions. We propose an instrumental variable approach in which changes in the tax treatment of housing transactions are used as an instrument for loan demand. The results are suggestive of considerable risk heterogeneity with riskier borrowers penalized more for borrowing more.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Besley & Neil Meads & Paolo Surico, 2012. "Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 375-419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12744.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Joshua Angrist & Guido Imbens, 2002. "Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 91-117, January.
    3. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    4. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    5. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
    6. Andrew Chesher, 2005. "Nonparametric Identification under Discrete Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1525-1550, September.
    7. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    8. Chiang, Raymond C & Chow, Ying-Foon & Liu, Ming, 2002. "Residential Mortgage Lending and Borrower Risk: The Relationship between Mortgage Spreads and Individual Characteristics," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-32, July.
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Atif R. Mian & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2010. "Local Versus Aggregate Lending Channels: The Effects Of Securitization On Corporate Credit Supply In Spain," NBER Working Papers 16595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 131-172.
    12. DiPasquale, Denise & Glaeser, Edward L., 1999. "Incentives and Social Capital: Are Homeowners Better Citizens?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 354-384, March.
    13. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2004. "The Effects of 401(K) Participation on the Wealth Distribution: An Instrumental Quantile Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 735-751, August.
    14. Susan E. Woodward & Robert E. Hall, 2012. "Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3249-3276, December.
    15. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    16. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    17. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    19. Tsai, Ming-Shann & Liao, Szu-Lang & Chiang, Shu-Ling, 2009. "Analyzing yield, duration and convexity of mortgage loans under prepayment and default risks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 92-103, June.
    20. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, January.
    21. Angel López-Nicolás & Jaume García & Pedro J. Hernández, 2001. "How wide is the gap? An investigation of gender wage differences using quantile regression," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 149-167.
    22. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    23. Gabriel Jiménez & Atif Mian & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "Local versus aggregate lending channels: the effects of securitization on corporate credit supply," Working Papers 1124, Banco de España.
    24. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bracke, Philippe & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Silva, Olmo, 2018. "Mortgage debt and entrepreneurship," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Surico, Paolo & Bracke, Philippe & Croxson, Karen & Fakhri, Daoud & Valletti, Tommaso, 2020. "Mortgage Market Disruptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Benetton, Matteo & Eckley, Peter & Garbarino, Nicola & Kirwin, Liam & Latsi, Georgia, 2021. "Capital requirements and mortgage pricing: Evidence from Basel II," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Ozlem Akin & José Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 223-243, August.
    5. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    6. Philippe Bracke & Christian Hilber & Olmo Silva, 2014. "Homeownership and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Mortgage Debt and Commitment," CESifo Working Paper Series 5048, CESifo.
    7. Montebruno, Piero & Silva, Olmo & Szumilo, Nikodem, 2021. "Judge Dread: court severity, repossession risk and demand in mortgage and housing markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110474, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Y. Campbell, 2013. "Mortgage Market Design," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33.
    2. Tobias Berg & Daniel Streitz & Michael Wedow, 2015. "Real Effects of Securitization," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1514, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression," Papers 2009.00436, arXiv.org.
    4. Muller, Christophe, 2018. "Heterogeneity and nonconstant effect in two-stage quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 3-12.
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    6. Christophe Muller, 2019. "Linear Quantile Regression and Endogeneity Correction," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 9(5), pages 123-128, August.
    7. Pereda-Fernández, Santiago, 2023. "Identification and estimation of triangular models with a binary treatment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 585-623.
    8. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    9. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2020. "Inconsistency transmission and variance reduction in two-stage quantile regression," Post-Print hal-02084505, HAL.
    10. Lee, Sokbae, 2007. "Endogeneity in quantile regression models: A control function approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1131-1158, December.
    11. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    12. Bola Amoke Awotide & Adebayo Ogunniyi & Kehinde Oluseyi Olagunju & Lateef Olalekan Bello & Amadou Youssouf Coulibaly & Alexander Nimo Wiredu & Bourémo Kone & Aly Ahamadou & Victor Manyong & Tahirou Ab, 2022. "Evaluating the Heterogeneous Impacts of Adoption of Climate-Smart Agricultural Technologies on Rural Households’ Welfare in Mali," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Kaspar Wüthrich, 2020. "A Comparison of Two Quantile Models With Endogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 443-456, April.
    14. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hansen, Christian, 2008. "Instrumental variable quantile regression: A robust inference approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 379-398, January.
    15. Jun, Sung Jae, 2008. "Weak identification robust tests in an instrumental quantile model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 118-138, May.
    16. Ndlovu, Godfrey & Toerien, Francois, 2020. "The distributional impact of access to finance on poverty: evidence from selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Jun, Sung Jae, 2009. "Local structural quantile effects in a model with a nonseparable control variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 82-97, July.
    18. Daniel I. García, 2018. "Employment in the Great Recession : How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Sanglestsawai, Santi & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Yorobe, Jose M., 2014. "Do lower yielding farmers benefit from Bt corn? Evidence from instrumental variable quantile regressions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 285-296.
    20. Pallab Ghosh & Kevin Grier & Jaeho Kim, 2021. "Heterogeneous endogeneity," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 847-886, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.