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Learning the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some Consequences of Debt-Management Policy

In: Fiscal Policy and Crisis

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  • Stefano Eusepi
  • Bruce Preston

Abstract

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US and Japan. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability for a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest-rate pegs combined with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This suggests that in periods where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is a relevant constraint on policy design, a switch in fiscal regime is desirable.
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  • Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Learning the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some Consequences of Debt-Management Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Crisis, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12696
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    17. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 255-299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Begona Dominguez & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, 2019. "The effects of secondary markets for government bonds on inflation dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 249-273, April.
    3. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 142-162.
    4. Ng'ang'a, William Irungu & Chevallier, Julien & Ndiritu, Simon Wagura, 2019. "Investigating fiscal and monetary policies coordination and public debt in Kenya: Evidence from regime-switching and self-exciting threshold autoregressive models," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Bello, Abdulmajeed Kumo & Joshua Adams Ndako & Yusuf, Fadimah & Amodu Amina Ejura, 2023. "Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Policy Efficacy in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(10), pages 857-877, October.
    6. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca, 2017. "Is communication clarity from fiscal authority useful? Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-51.
    7. Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(2), pages 33-58.
    8. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    9. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2014. "Dynamics of Monetary-Fiscal Interaction under Learning," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100609, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    11. Dominguez, Begona & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2016. "The Effects of Secondary Markets and Unsecured Credit on Inflation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 75096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Tales of transition paths: Policy uncertainty and random walks," Discussion Papers 14/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. André, Marine C. & Armijo, Alberto & Espidio, Sebastián Medina & Sandoval, Jamel, 2023. "Policy mix in a small open emerging economy with commodity prices," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    14. Helder Ferreira De Mendonça & Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay, 2018. "Effect Of The Communication And Clarity Of The Fiscal Authority On Market Expectations: Evidence From The Brazilian Economy," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 65, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    16. Moises S. Andrade & Tiago Berriel, 2016. "Is There an Output Free Lunch for Fiscal Inationary Policies?," Textos para discussão 650, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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