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Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: Do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?

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  • Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro

Abstract

Credible fiscal plans that aim at restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential to counter the present increase in debt levels all across Europe. The macroeconomic scenario of such plans will be crucial. This paper assesses whether there is any advantage in delegating (part of) such power to supranational forecasts. The evidence on the relative performance of the European Commission's (EC) growth forecast is rather mixed, with considerable variation at the country level. Some national government forecasts (France, Italy and Portugal) perform worse in terms of descriptive statistics than the EC forecast for all forecast horizons. For the year ahead the EC growth forecast is better than the official forecasts for almost three quarters of the EU-15 countries. All in all, since the EC forecast appears to be a good benchmark, in order to reduce the (optimistic) forecast bias, national governments could be forced to justify any large (optimistic) deviation from this benchmark when presenting their respective national Stability and Growth Programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: Do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 185-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijsuse:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:185-209
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased? Evidence from stability and convergence programmes and the European Commission’s Spring forecasts," Papers WP681, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Misheck Mutize, 2022. "A trend analysis of Eurobond yields in Africa," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(1), pages 19-34.
    3. Hamza Bennani & Cécile Couharde & Yoan Wallois, 2024. "The effect of IMF communication on government bond markets: insights from sentiment analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(2), pages 615-656, May.
    4. Haryo Kuncoro, 2017. "Does the sustainable fiscal policy foster its credibility?," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 84-97, April.
    5. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
    6. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
    7. Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. William Easterly, 2012. "The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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