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How anchored are inflation expectations in Asia? Evidence from surveys of professional forecasters

In: Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific

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  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • James Yetman

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "How anchored are inflation expectations in Asia? Evidence from surveys of professional forecasters," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 181-191, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:77-17
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    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap77o_rh.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    5. Devereux, Michael B & Yetman, James, 2003. "Predetermined Prices and the Persistent Effects of Money on Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 729-741, October.
    6. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    7. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    8. Andrew Filardo & Hans Genberg, 2010. "Targeting inflation in Asia and the Pacific: lessons from the recent past," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 251-273, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
    11. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
    12. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Jörg Urban, 2014. "How might EME central banks respond to the influence of global monetary factors?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 45-69, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Mr. Ken Miyajima & James Yetman, 2018. "Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/177, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova, 2022. "What drives updates of inflation expectations? A Bayesian VAR analysis for the G‐7 countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2748-2765, September.

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