IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/chb/bcchec/v11y2008i1p61-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Caputo G.
  • Marco Núñez N.
  • Rodrigo O. Valdés P.

Abstract

This paper describes the main tools used to analyze the exchange rate in the process of conducting and analyzing the macroeconomic policies of the Chilean Central Bank (CCB). In doing so, we first describe the main methodologies used to construct real exchange rate (RER) indices, and corroborate that the RER index regularly published by the CCB has the desired properties. Second, we discuss different concepts of RER equilibrium and review methodologies that can empirically approximate the concept of medium to long-term RER equilibrium. For all these methodologies, we report estimations of the equilibrium RER during 2005. In each case, we identify the main assumptions behind the results. Finally, we analyze some variables that describe the behavior of the exchange market, that are a complementary tool to the equilibrium RER estimates, and are useful to assess whether there is an unusual behavior or exceptional circumstances in this market.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:61-91
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2008/abr/v11n1abr2008pp61-91.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Purchasing power parity in an emerging market economy: a long- span study for Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1 Year 20), pages 103-132, June.
    2. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, October.
    3. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2006. "Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow, or Not at All?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(1), pages 1-5.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mr. Dominique Desruelle & Mr. Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primeron the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 1997/071, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    7. Paul De Grauwe (ed.), 2005. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262042223, April.
    8. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    9. Luci Ellis, 2001. "Measuring the Real Exchange Rate: Pitfalls and Practicalities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Colin Hargreaves (ed.), 1992. "Macroeconomic Modelling Of The Long Run," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 207.
    11. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    12. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Bernardo Dominichetti H., 2005. "Revisión Metodológica en el Cálculo del IPE e Implicancias sobre los Modelos de Serie de Tiempo Para el TCR," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(1), pages 77-82, April.
    13. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    16. Jorge Selaive C., 2005. "Actividad del Mercado Cambiario y Movimiento del Tipo de Cambio Nominal," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(3), pages 75-83, December.
    17. David Hargreaves & Bruce White, 1999. "Measures of New Zealand's effective exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
    18. Mr. Jaewoo Lee & Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2005. "A Fair Exchange? Theory and Practice of Calculating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2005/229, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Peter Isard, 2006. "Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Working Papers 2006/096, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, October.
    21. Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile.
    22. Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064.
    23. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
    24. Mr. Lamin Y Leigh & Mr. Steven V Dunaway & Ms. Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 2006/220, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José De Gregorio, 2009. "Exchange Rates, Real Adjustment and Monetary Policy," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 34, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N, 2008. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Chile: Alternative Approaches," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 59-77, August.
    2. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    3. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. John Sarich, 2006. "What do we know about the real exchange rate? A classical cost of production story," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 469-496.
    5. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Igal Magendzo, 2009. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter For Inflation And Exchange Rate Dynamics? The Case Of Central America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 517, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Papanikos, Gregory T., 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and the linkage between money and output in Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 103-117, May.
    7. Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008. "Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium‐Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, June.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Reza Siregar, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp81, April.
    12. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486, October.
    13. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    14. Ian Babetskii & Balázs Égert, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate in the Czech Republic: How Good is the Czech BEER?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 232-252, May.
    15. Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
    16. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    17. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    18. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Qin, Duo, 2008. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    20. Yinghao LUO, 2016. "Nonlinear Trend and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 490-497, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:61-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fredherick Sanllehi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.