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Energy Scenarios 2050 for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Ina Meyer
  • Mark Sommer

    (WIFO)

  • Kurt Kratena

    (WIFO)

Abstract

This study develops and analyses new energy scenarios for Austria, taking into account the international climate policy after the COP21 in Paris (2015). In two energy-economic scenarios, potential effects of climate and energy policy measures on energy consumption and value added in Austria are modelled up to the year 2050. According to the UNFCCC definition, a WEM scenario ("with existing measures") is developed which describes energy-economic trends and includes the climate and energy-economic measures implemented until the end of May 2016. In addition, a WAM plus scenario ("with additional measures") is developed and modelled, which is based on the medium- and long-term objectives of the European climate and energy policy, i.e., a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 80 to 95 percent by 2050 (compared to 1990) and a representation of the 2030 target (greenhouse gas emissions –40 percent) detailed for Austria. The WAM plus scenario includes a large number of additional measures in the area of energy efficiency, renewable energy and technological change. Next to technological innovations and cost improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, this includes behavioural and lifestyle changes in energy-related demand patterns and targeted infrastructure investments. The WAM plus scenario is a global climate change scenario that reflects a global commitment to achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The modelling of the scenarios takes the form of a model coupling of a number of technology-oriented sectoral bottom-up models of the project partners (AEA, TU Vienna, TU Graz, UBA) with a top-down model – the WIFO.DYNK model (Dynamic New-Keynesian model). As a result, there is a slight absolute decoupling of economic performance and energy consumption in the WEM scenario, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5 percent. Considerable investments in a low-carbon economy set significant growth impulses for the Austrian economy in the WAM plus scenario. Cost-saving effects through lower energy bills are responsible for income effects that generate a positive stimulous to the economy. Ultimately, this increases the average annual GDP growth rate to 1.7 percent (at constant prices), with a significant fall in energy demand in the main aggregated sectors. Detailed sector results can be found in the report.

Suggested Citation

  • Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer & Kurt Kratena, 2018. "Energy Scenarios 2050 for Austria," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61089, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:61089
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iñaki Arto & Kurt Kratena & Antonio F. Amores & Umed Temurshoev & Gerhard Streicher, 2015. "Market based instruments to reduce air emissions from household heating appliances. Analysis of scrappage policy scenarios," JRC Research Reports JRC85940, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Jose Luengo-Prado, Maria, 2006. "Durables, nondurables, down payments and consumption excesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1509-1539, October.
    3. Simone Salotti & Letizia Montinari & Antonio F. Amores & José Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, 2015. "Total expenditure elasticity of non-durable consumption of European households," JRC Research Reports JRC94405, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Schumacher, Katja & Sands, Ronald D., 2007. "Where are the industrial technologies in energy-economy models? An innovative CGE approach for steel production in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 799-825, July.
    5. Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer & Kurt Kratena & Maria Tesar & Christian Neubauer, 2016. "Volkswirtschaftliche Effekte durch Recycling ausgewählter Altstoffe und Abfälle," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59158.
    6. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Policy Implications of Resource Constraints on the European Economy. WWWforEurope Policy Brief No. 6," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 50873, January.
    7. Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher & Umed Temurshoev & Antonio F. Amores & Iñaki Arto & Ignazio Mongelli & Frederik Neuwahl & José-Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Valeria Andreoni, 2013. "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU 27," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46816.
    8. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1645-1718, Elsevier.
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    1. Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer, 2019. "Zur umweltökonomischen Relevanz der Abfall- und Ressourcenwirtschaft. Beschäftigungseffekte durch Restmüllverwertung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(11), pages 833-843, November.
    2. Mark Sommer & Ina Meyer & Silvia Scherhaufer & Florian Part & Peter Beigl, 2021. "ROSE-Trans – The Role of Secondary Resources in the Austrian Energy Transition," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69194.

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