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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Wachstum auf des Messers Schneide

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  • Barabas, György
  • Jessen, Robin
  • Schmidt, Torsten
  • Weyerstraß, Klaus

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials in Deutschland wird in der mittleren Frist zunehmend von der demografischen Entwicklung gebremst. Ältere Bevölkerungsgruppen mit einer zwar steigenden, aber weiterhin vergleichsweise niedrigen Erwerbsbeteiligung gewinnen zunehmend an Bedeutung. In dieser Projektion schätzen wir, dass das Produktionspotenzial bis zum Jahr 2023 um 1,3% pro Jahr steigen wird, wobei die Raten im Verlauf des Projektionszeitraums abnehmen. Die daraus abgeleitete Mittelfristprojektion geht davon aus, dass sich der Aufschwung zwar fortsetzt, die Gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion sich aber parallel zum schwächeren Anstieg des Produktionspotenzials markant abschwächen wird. Die Anfälligkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft für außenwirtschaftliche Störungen nimmt damit zu.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabas, György & Jessen, Robin & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2018. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2023: Wachstum auf des Messers Schneide," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(4), pages 23-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:193152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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