IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/270910.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting 2030 CO2 reduction targets for Russia as a major emitter using different estimation scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Gurbanov, Sarvar
  • Mikayilov, Jeyhun I.
  • Mukhtarov, Shahriyar
  • Yagubov, Sakit

Abstract

This study firstly analyzes the impact of energy intensities and income on CO2 emissions in Russia, applying different estimation methods to the data period from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the study forecasts CO2 emissions considering 2030 targets under different assumptions and assesses the achievability of the set target. The estimation results concluded that the GDP and fossil fuel intensities of GDP have a statistically positive impact on CO2 emissions. Also, we found that the forecasted value for 2030, for the business-as-usual case, is 1750 MtCO2, with 95% confidence interval values of 1703 MtCO2 and 1796 MtCO2. This result shows that Russia needs to undergo substantial policy interventions to achieve its targets to reduce CO2 emissions. As the fifth biggest emitter, Russia missing its emissions targets will have undesirable implications for the rest of the world. Based on the projection results, the paper discusses some potential policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurbanov, Sarvar & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Mukhtarov, Shahriyar & Yagubov, Sakit, 2023. "Forecasting 2030 CO2 reduction targets for Russia as a major emitter using different estimation scenarios," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:270910
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2146861
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/270910/1/Forecasting%202030%20CO2%20reduction%20targets%20for%20Russia%20as%20a%20major%20emitter%20using%20different%20estimation%20scenarios.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/15140326.2022.2146861?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamazian, Artur & Bhaskara Rao, B., 2010. "Do economic, financial and institutional developments matter for environmental degradation? Evidence from transitional economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-145, January.
    2. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Yang, Xuechun & Lou, Feng & Sun, Mingxing & Wang, Renqing & Wang, Yutao, 2017. "Study of the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the economic growth of Russia based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 162-173.
    5. Ito, Katsuya, 2017. "CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for developing countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 1-6.
    6. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Sinha, Avik, 2022. "Do the shocks in technological and financial innovation influence the environmental quality? Evidence from BRICS economies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Saboori, Behnaz & Soleymani, Abdorreza, 2016. "Economic growth and carbon emissions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 388-397.
    8. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Petar Mitić & Olja Munitlak Ivanović & Aleksandar Zdravković, 2017. "A Cointegration Analysis of Real GDP and CO 2 Emissions in Transitional Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Shafik, Nemat & Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, 1992. "Economic growth and environmental quality : time series and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 904, The World Bank.
    11. Jaforullah, Mohammad & King, Alan, 2017. "The econometric consequences of an energy consumption variable in a model of CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 84-91.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    13. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    14. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    16. Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Beveridge, Malcolm C. M. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Marwaha, Nisha & Stanley, Michele & Grisenthwaite, Robert & Phillips, Michael J., 2022. "Cattle, seaweed, and global greenhouse gas emissions," IFPRI discussion papers 2111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Azevedo, Vitor G. & Sartori, Simone & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2018. "CO2 emissions: A quantitative analysis among the BRICS nations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 107-115.
    18. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    19. Kijima, Masaaki & Nishide, Katsumasa & Ohyama, Atsuyuki, 2010. "Economic models for the environmental Kuznets curve: A survey," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1187-1201, July.
    20. Katsuya Ito, 2017. "CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for developing countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 1-6.
    21. Natalya Ketenci, 2018. "The environmental Kuznets curve in the case of Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(3), pages 249-265, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Quan-Hoang Vuong & Manh-Tung Ho & Hong-Kong To Nguyen & Minh-Hoang Nguyen, 2019. "The trilemma of sustainable industrial growth: evidence from a piloting OECD’s Green city," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Oryani, Bahareh & Koo, Yoonmo & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Shafiee, Afsaneh, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of energy consumption on reshaping future energy policy and economic growth in Iran using extended Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Mary O. Agboola & Festus V. Bekun, 2019. "Does Agricultural Value Added Induce Environmental Degradation? Empirical Evidence from an Agrarian Country," CEREDEC Working Papers 19/040, Centre de Recherche pour le Développement Economique (CEREDEC).
    5. Imad Moosa, 2018. "Growth and Environmental Degradation in MENA Countries: Methodological Issues and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 1260, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Dec 2018.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mutascu, Mihai & Azim, Parvez, 2013. "Environmental Kuznets curve in Romania and the role of energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 165-173.
    7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Avik Sinha, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2emissions: a literature survey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 106-168, January.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sinha, Avik, 2019. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: A survey of empirical literature," MPRA Paper 100257, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    9. Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath & Mohd Arshad Ansari & Muhammad Shahbaz & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Do tourism development and structural change promote environmental quality? Evidence from India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 5163-5194, April.
    10. Md. Golam Kibria & Ismay Jahan & Jannatul Mawa, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of financial development and energy consumption on environmental degradation in South Asia? New evidence from non-linear ARDL analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-18, April.
    11. Amina Andreichyk & Pavel Tsvetkov, 2023. "Study of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Countries on the Basis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Abdul Sattar & Temesgen Hordofa Tolassa & Muhammad Noshab Hussain & Muhammad Ilyas, 2022. "Environmental Effects of China’s Overseas Direct Investment in South Asia," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, February.
    13. Roxana Pincheira & Felipe Zuniga, 2021. "Environmental Kuznets curve bibliographic map: a systematic literature review," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1931-1956, April.
    14. Amantay Akbota & Jungho Baek, 2018. "The Environmental Consequences of Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, March.
    15. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi & Seun Damola Oladipupo & Ephraim Bonah Agyekum & Arunkumar Jayakumar & Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar, 2021. "Dominance of Fossil Fuels in Japan’s National Energy Mix and Implications for Environmental Sustainability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-20, July.
    16. Gopal Gopakumar & Ritika Jaiswal & Mayank Parashar, 2022. "Analysis of the Existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 177-187.
    17. Arup Roy & Ranjan DasGupta, 2024. "Economic Development, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Deterioration: A Non-Linear Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 721-747, September.
    18. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Haouas, Ilham & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2019. "Economic growth and environmental degradation in Vietnam: Is the environmental Kuznets curve a complete picture?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-218.
    19. Thomas Jobert & Fatih Karanfil & Anna Tykhonenko, 2012. "Trade and Environment: Further Empirical Evidence from Heterogeneous Panels Using Aggregate Data," GREDEG Working Papers 2012-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    20. Muntasir Murshed & Mohamed Elheddad & Rizwan Ahmed & Mohga Bassim & Ei Thuzar Than, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investments, Renewable Electricity Output, and Ecological Footprints: Do Financial Globalization Facilitate Renewable Energy Transition and Environmental Welfare in Bangladesh?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(1), pages 33-78, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:270910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.