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Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar

Abstract

We augment an otherwise standard business cycle model with a richer government sector, and add a stochastic costly credit production as in Benk at al. (2005), and a modified cash in advance (CIA) considerations. In particular, the cash in advance constraint of Cole (2020) is extended to include private investment and government consumption, and allows an endogenous proportion of total expenditure to be done using credit. This specification is then calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2018). The costly credit production mechanism adds little in explaining business cycle fluctuations. Credit shocks by themselves are an unlikely candidate to drive the business cycle. In addition, the modified CIA constraint produces a transmission mechanism that generates too much investment volatility, and too little variability in hours and wages in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "Are credit shocks quantitatively important for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations in Bulgaria (1999-2018)?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 5-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:243047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "Business Cycle Accounting: Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2014)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(2), pages 197-219.
    2. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    3. Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2004. "Occasionally Binding Collateral Constraints in RBC Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Gillman M. & Siklos & P.L.Silver & J.L., 1996. "Money Velocity with Costly Credit," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 515, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 668-687, July.
    6. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    7. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "The Demand for Bank Reserves and Other Monetary Aggregates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 518-533, July.
    8. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1998. "Credit and Business Cycles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 18-35, March.
    9. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
    10. Gillman, Max, 1993. "The welfare cost of inflation in a cash-in-advance economy with costly credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 97-115, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; modified cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint; stochastic credit production; time cost; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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