IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/208381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Sarmiento, Luis
  • Burandt, Thorsten
  • Löffler, Konstantin
  • Oei, Pao-Yu

Abstract

This paper uses numerical techno-economic modelling to analyse the effect of current national renewable targets and climate goals on the cost and structural composition of the Mexican energy system. For this, we construct a scenario base analysis to compare current policies with two alternative states of the world—one without climate policies and one attaining full decarbonization. Furthermore, an additional iterative routine allows us to estimate the cost-optimal share of renewable technologies in the energy sector and the effect that deviating from this share has on total discounted system costs, emissions and the structure of the energy mix. In general, model results exhibit three key insights—(1) A marked dependence of the energy system on photovoltaics and natural gas; (2) The 2050 cost-optimal share of renewables for the production of electricity, transportation and industrial heating is respectively 75%, 90% and 5%; and (3) As national renewable targets for the power sector are lower than the cost-optimal share of renewables, equivalent to the shares in an scenario without climate policies and completely disconnected from national climate goals, these should be modified.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarmiento, Luis & Burandt, Thorsten & Löffler, Konstantin & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Analyzing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(2019), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:208381
    DOI: 10.3390/en12173270
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/208381/1/energies-12-03270-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3390/en12173270?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanna, Rema & Oliva, Paulina, 2015. "The effect of pollution on labor supply: Evidence from a natural experiment in Mexico City," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 68-79.
    2. Dmitrii Bogdanov & Javier Farfan & Kristina Sadovskaia & Arman Aghahosseini & Michael Child & Ashish Gulagi & Ayobami Solomon Oyewo & Larissa Souza Noel Simas Barbosa & Christian Breyer, 2019. "Radical transformation pathway towards sustainable electricity via evolutionary steps," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    4. Mirakyan, Atom & De Guio, Roland, 2013. "Integrated energy planning in cities and territories: A review of methods and tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 289-297.
    5. Tom Y. Chang & Joshua Graff Zivin & Tal Gross & Matthew Neidell, 2019. "The Effect of Pollution on Worker Productivity: Evidence from Call Center Workers in China," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-172, January.
    6. Linus Lawrenz & Bobby Xiong & Luise Lorenz & Alexandra Krumm & Hans Hosenfeld & Thorsten Burandt & Konstantin Löffler & Pao-Yu Oei & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2018. "Exploring Energy Pathways for the Low-Carbon Transformation in India—A Model-Based Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    7. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2012. "The Impact of Pollution on Worker Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3652-3673, December.
    8. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    9. Peter Russ & Patrick Criqui, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction : the soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Post-Print halshs-00078489, HAL.
    10. Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel, 2017. "Fresh Air Eases Work – The Effect of Air Quality on Individual Investor Activity," NBER Working Papers 24048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gerbaulet, C. & von Hirschhausen, C. & Kemfert, C. & Lorenz, C. & Oei, P.-Y., 2019. "European electricity sector decarbonization under different levels of foresight," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 973-987.
    12. Pohekar, S. D. & Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 365-381, August.
    13. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, September.
    14. Russ, Peter & Criqui, Patrick, 2007. "Post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction: The soft landing scenario analysed with POLES and other world models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 786-796, February.
    15. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    16. Wang, Qiang & Chen, Xi & Jha, Awadhesh N. & Rogers, Howard, 2014. "Natural gas from shale formation – The evolution, evidences and challenges of shale gas revolution in United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-28.
    17. Andrea Herbst & Felipe Andrés Toro & Felix Reitze & Eberhard Jochem, 2012. "Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(II), pages 111-135, June.
    18. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    19. Welsch, M. & Howells, M. & Bazilian, M. & DeCarolis, J.F. & Hermann, S. & Rogner, H.H., 2012. "Modelling elements of Smart Grids – Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 337-350.
    20. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    21. Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2016. "Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1251-1265.
    22. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Sarmiento & Thorsten Burandt & Konstantin Löffler & Pao-Yu Oei, 2019. "Analyzing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System—An Application of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Raúl Gutiérrez-Meave & Juan Rosellón & Luis Sarmiento, 2021. "The Effect of Changing Marginal-Cost to Physical-Order Dispatch in the Power Sector," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1955, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2019. "Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - A quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26, pages 1-15.
    4. Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl & Eidens, Anna & Löffler, Konstantin & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix & Burandt, Thorsten & Oei, Pao-Yu & Kemfert, Claudia & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2019. "Pathways for Germany's Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(15), pages 1-33.
    5. Luis Sarmiento, 2020. "Waiting for My Sentence: Air Pollution and the Productivity of Court Rulings," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1878, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Luis Sarmiento, 2022. "Air pollution and the productivity of high‐skill labor: evidence from court hearings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 301-332, January.
    7. Rigas, Nikos & Kounetas, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Role of temperature, Precipitation and CO2 emissions on Countries’ Economic Growth and Productivity," MPRA Paper 104727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Löffler, Konstantin & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Oei, Pao-Yu & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix, 2022. "Chances and barriers for Germany's low carbon transition - Quantifying uncertainties in key influential factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    9. Bellani, Luna & Ceolotto, Stefano & Elsner, Benjamin & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Air Pollution Affects Decision-Making: Evidence from the Ballot Box," IZA Discussion Papers 14718, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Lopez, Gabriel & Aghahosseini, Arman & Child, Michael & Khalili, Siavash & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of model structure, framework, and flexibility on perspectives of 100% renewable energy transition decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Weinand, Jann Michael & Scheller, Fabian & McKenna, Russell, 2020. "Reviewing energy system modelling of decentralized energy autonomy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    12. Shihe Fu & V. Brian Viard, 2022. "A mayors perspective on tackling air pollution," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 16, pages 413-437, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Künn, Steffen & Palacios, Juan & Pestel, Nico, 2019. "Indoor Air Quality and Cognitive Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 12632, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2017. "Severe Air Pollution and School Absences: Longitudinal Data on Expatriates in North China," IZA Discussion Papers 11134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Cook, Nikolai & Heyes, Anthony, 2022. "Pollution pictures: Psychological exposure to pollution impacts worker productivity in a large-scale field experiment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Felix Bracht & Dennis Verhoeven, 2021. "Air pollution and innovation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1817, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Andrea La Nauze & Edson R. Severnini, 2021. "Air Pollution and Adult Cognition: Evidence from Brain Training," NBER Working Papers 28785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Galván, Antonio & Haas, Jannik & Moreno-Leiva, Simón & Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Nowak, Wolfgang & Palma-Benke, Rodrigo & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Exporting sunshine: Planning South America’s electricity transition with green hydrogen," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    19. Sandra Aguilar-Gomez & Nathaly M. Rivera, 2024. "Air Pollution in the Global South: An Overview of Its Sources and Impacts," Working Papers wp561, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    20. Michelle Marcus, 2021. "Pollution at schools and children's aerobic capacity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 3016-3031, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:208381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.