IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v61y2016i02ns0217590816400257.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’S Exchange Rate System Reform: Two Potential Mistakes And The Recommended Long-Term System

Author

Listed:
  • PAUL S. L. YIP

    (Economics Division, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 14 Nanyang Drive, 637332, Singapore)

Abstract

Further to the author’s recommended transitory and medium-term exchange rate system reforms that was implemented in China since July 2005, this paper explains that: (1) a long-term reform towards a floating exchange rate system with free capital mobility will cause huge damages to the Chinese economy. It then proposes a long-term exchange rate system that would probably benefit China the most; and (2) there is a serious mistake in China’s latest exchange rate policy: The Chinese central bank has mistakenly allowed the renminbi exchange rate to rise with the strong rebound of the US dollar. This will cause not only a substantial drag in China’s export and GDP growth, but will also eventually make China’s financial and economic system vulnerable to a highly disruptive correction in the renminbi exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. L. Yip, 2016. "China’S Exchange Rate System Reform: Two Potential Mistakes And The Recommended Long-Term System," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-40, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:02:n:s0217590816400257
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816400257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590816400257
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590816400257?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
    3. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. McKinnon Ronald I, 2006. "China's New Exchange Rate Policy: Will China Follow Japan into a Liquidity Trap?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(5), pages 1-7, April.
    5. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 465-489, April.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    7. Friedman, Milton, 1969. "Round Table on Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 364-366, May.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-175, Supplemen.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1986. "The Dollar as Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-625, June.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Fujii, Eiji, 2007. "The overvaluation of Renminbi undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 762-785, September.
    13. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    14. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    15. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    16. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the renminbi," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 16-21, October.
    17. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, March.
    18. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul S. L. Yip & Yiu-Kuen Tse & Yingjie Dong, 2017. "The Exchange Rate System Reform in China: US Pressure, Implicit Gradual Appreciation and Explicit Exchange Rate Bands," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1710, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "A comparison of the BEER and Penn effect models via their applications on the valuation of the Renminbi," MPRA Paper 40649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zhang, Zhibai, 2010. "Understanding the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model via its application to the valuation of Chinese renminbi," MPRA Paper 40648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    6. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: an agnostic view," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01073825, HAL.
    7. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    8. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
    9. Gan, Christopher & Ward, Bert & Ting, Su Ting & Cohen, David A., 2013. "An empirical analysis of China's equilibrium exchange rate: A co-integration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 33-44.
    10. Cheong, Calvin W.H. & Sinnakkannu, Jothee & Ramasamy, Sockalingam, 2017. "On the predictability of carry trade returns: The case of the Chinese Yuan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 358-376.
    11. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2012. "The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world : A global computable general equilibrium analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 1178, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    13. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," MPRA Paper 40978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Meixing Dai, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," Working Papers of BETA 2011-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    15. Gao, Yichen & Li, Hongjun & Li, Qi, 2022. "The misalignments in Chinese real effective exchange rate from 1994 to 2020: A counterfactual analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Zhang, Zhibai, 2012. "A simple model and its application in currency valuation," MPRA Paper 40650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Yan, Isabel K. & Kakkar, Vikas, 2010. "The equilibrium real exchange rate of China: a productivity approach," MPRA Paper 35229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Zhang, Zhibai, 2011. "Some notes on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model," MPRA Paper 40965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.
    20. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Kaji, Sahoko & Tamon, Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 476, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:02:n:s0217590816400257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.