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The Uncertainty Premium in an Ambiguous Economy

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Listed:
  • Yehuda Izhakian

    (Stern School of Business, New York University, USA)

  • Simon Benninga

    (Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University, Israel)

Abstract

Theuncertainty premiumis the premium that is derived from not knowing the sure outcome (risk premium) and from not knowing the precise odds of outcomes (ambiguity premium). We generalize Pratt's risk premium to uncertainty premium based on Klibanoffet al.'s (2005) smooth model of ambiguity. We show that the uncertainty premium can decrease with an increase in decision maker's risk aversion. This happens because increasing risk aversion always results in a lower ambiguity premium. The positive ambiguity premium may provide an additional explanation to the equity premium puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Yehuda Izhakian & Simon Benninga, 2011. "The Uncertainty Premium in an Ambiguous Economy," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 323-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:01:y:2011:i:02:n:s2010139211000109
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139211000109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 559-591, March.
    2. Menachem Brenner & Yehuda Izhakian & Orly Sade, 2011. "Ambiguity and Overconfidence," Working Papers 11-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Baillon, Aurélien & Bleichrodt, Han & Li, Chen & Wakker, Peter P., 2021. "Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. L. A. Franzoni, 2016. "Optimal liability design under risk and ambiguity," Working Papers wp1048, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Albrecht, E & Baum, Günter & Birsa, R & Bradamante, F & Bressan, A & Chapiro, A & Cicuttin, A & Ciliberti, P & Colavita, A & Costa, S & Crespo, M & Cristaudo, P & Dalla Torre, S & Diaz, V & Duic, V &, 2010. "Results from COMPASS RICH-1," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 535, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    5. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Ambiguity Measurement," Working Papers 12-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2017. "Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 91-103.
    7. Yehuda Izhakian & David Yermack & Jaime F. Zender, 2016. "Ambiguity and the Tradeoff Theory of Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 22870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yehuda Izhakian & David Yermack, 2014. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Exercise of Employee Stock Options," NBER Working Papers 19975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gábor-Tóth, Enikő & Georgarakos, Dimitris, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market participation," CFS Working Paper Series 590, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. André, Eric, 2014. "Optimal portfolio with vector expected utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 50-62.
    11. Li, Wenhui & Ockenfels, Peter & Wilde, Christian, 2021. "The effect of ambiguity on price formation and trading behavior in financial markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 326, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Yehuda Izhakian, 2012. "Capital Asset Pricing Under Ambiguity," Working Papers 12-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    13. Shust, Efrat, 2024. "The ambiguous December," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.
    15. Brenner, Menachem & Izhakian, Yehuda, 2018. "Asset pricing and ambiguity: Empirical evidence⁎," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 503-531.
    16. Li, Wenhui & Wilde, Christian, 2021. "Separating the effects of beliefs and attitudes on pricing under ambiguity," SAFE Working Paper Series 311, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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