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Macroeconomics And Sovereign Risk Ratings

Author

Listed:
  • OTAVIANO CANUTO
  • PABLO F. PEREIRA DOS SANTOS

    (Ministry of Finance, Brazil)

  • PAULO C. DE SÁ PORTO

    (Catholic University of Santos, Brazil)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the concept and determinants of "sovereign risk" and the role of the credit risk rating agencies which serve internationally as the main reference instruments employed by economic agents to assess this risk. The paper also tries to identify macroeconomic variables which could be associated with sovereign risk ratings awarded by rating agencies to each country. After examining the indicators on an individual basis, their potential as a group is tested econometrically as a determinant of the class of sovereign risk into which national economies fall. Our results constitute a set of indicators which emerging economies would be well advised to improve upon.

Suggested Citation

  • Otaviano Canuto & Pablo F. Pereira Dos Santos & Paulo C. De Sá Porto, 2012. "Macroeconomics And Sovereign Risk Ratings," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:03:y:2012:i:02:n:s1793993312500111
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993312500111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    3. Canuto, Otaviano & Mohapatra, Sanket & Dilip Ratha, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 63, pages 1-6, August.
    4. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    6. Laura Jaramillo & Ms. Michelle Michelle Tejada, 2011. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/044, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Otaviano Canuto & Marcelo Giugale, 2010. "The Day After Tomorrow : A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2507.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elnaz Gholipour & B'ela Vizv'ari & Zolt'an Lakner, 2020. "Reconstruction Rating Model of Sovereign Debt by Logical Analysis of Data," Papers 2011.14112, arXiv.org.
    2. Athari, Seyed Alireza & Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Dependency between sovereign credit ratings and economic risk: Insight from Balkan countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Antonio Afonso & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2019. "Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2999-3010.
    4. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2013. "Promotion and Relegation between Country Risk Classes as Maintained by Country Risk Rating Agencies," Working Papers 376, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Dilek Teker & Aynur Pala & Oya Kent, 2013. "Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 122-132.
    6. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
    7. Julio Cezar Soares Silva & Diogo Ferreira de Lima Silva & Luciano Ferreira & Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho, 2022. "A dominance-based rough set approach applied to evaluate the credit risk of sovereign bonds," 4OR, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 139-164, March.
    8. Aras, Osman Nuri & Öztürk, Mustafa, 2018. "The Effect of the Macroeconomic Determinants on Sovereign Credit Rating of Turkey," MPRA Paper 86642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    10. Stefanos Ioannou, 2017. "Credit Rating Downgrades and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows in the Eurozone," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 1-36, October.
    11. MIRICESCU, Emilian - Constantin, 2014. "Investigating The Determinants Of Long-Run Sovereign Rating," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(3), pages 25-32.
    12. Choy, Swee Yew & Chit, Myint Moe & Teo, Wing Leong, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings: Discovering unorthodox factors and variables," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Panos Gavras & Sofoklis D. Vogiazas & Maria Koura, 2016. "An Empirical Assessment of Sovereign Country Risk in the Black Sea Region," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; ratings and international finance; JEL Classifications: E60; JEL Classifications: F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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