IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/upadbr/14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Individual investors and suboptimal early exercises in the fixed-income market

Author

Listed:
  • Eickholt, Mathias
  • Entrop, Oliver
  • Wilkens, Marco

Abstract

This paper is the first to analyze and value early exercises of Individual Investors in fixed-income investment products. Assuming decision and transaction costs we consider that a continuous decision-making on holding or exercising is not optimal anymore and propose a new approach to modeling exercise decisions, which endogenously determines the optimal decision strategy. Calibrating our model to a unique data set of about 880,000 early exercises in non-tradable putable bonds over a time period of 13 years indicates that Individual Investors (i) act very heterogeneously, (ii) behave as if they face significant individual transaction and decision costs, (iii) react sluggishly, and that (iv) exogenous effects such as taxes or investors´ desire for liquidity additionally influence early exercise behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "Individual investors and suboptimal early exercises in the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 14, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:upadbr:14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/103417/1/798202025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    3. Sias, Richard W & Starks, Laura T, 1997. "Institutions and Individuals at the Turn-of-the-Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1543-1562, September.
    4. Tang, Huarong & Xia, Yihong, 2007. "An International Examination of Affine Term Structure Models and the Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 41-80, March.
    5. Fernando Alvarez & Luigi Guiso & Francesco Lippi, 2012. "Durable Consumption and Asset Management with Transaction and Observation Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2272-2300, August.
    6. Zoran Ivković & James Poterba & Scott Weisbenner, 2005. "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1605-1630, December.
    7. Dunn, Kenneth B & McConnell, John J, 1981. "A Comparison of Alternative Models for Pricing GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 471-484, May.
    8. Pool, Veronika Krepely & Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 2008. "Failure to exercise call options: An anomaly and a trading game," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-35, February.
    9. Allen M. Poteshman & Vitaly Serbin, 2003. "Clearly Irrational Financial Market Behavior: Evidence from the Early Exercise of Exchange Traded Stock Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 37-70, February.
    10. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy, 2010. "Optimal exercise of executive stock options and implications for firm cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 315-337, November.
    11. Christian Koziol, 2006. "Empirical Exercise Behavior Of Warrant Holders And Its Consequences For Warrant Values," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 245-268.
    12. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    13. Diz, Fernando & Finucane, Thomas J, 1993. "The Rationality of Early Exercise Decisions: Evidence from the S&P 100 Index Options Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 765-797.
    14. Li Liao & Zhisheng Li & Weiqiang Zhang & Ning Zhu, 2014. "Exercise to Lose Money? Irrational Exercise Behavior from the Chinese Warrants Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 399-419, May.
    15. Kathryn Barraclough & Robert E. Whaley, 2012. "Early Exercise of Put Options on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1423-1456, August.
    16. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    17. Peter Hördahl & David Vestin, 2005. "Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 97-137, March.
    18. Egorov, Alexei V. & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2006. "Validating forecasts of the joint probability density of bond yields: Can affine models beat random walk?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 255-284.
    19. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:375-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gay, Gerald D. & Kolb, Robert W. & Yung, Kenneth, 1989. "Trader rationality in the exercise of futures options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 339-361, August.
    21. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    22. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 1998. "Mortgage Choice: What's the Point?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 173-205, June.
    23. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1992. "Prepayment, Default, and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-through Securities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 221-239, April.
    24. Finucane, Thomas J., 1997. "An empirical analysis of common stock call exercise: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 563-571, April.
    25. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2013. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market With Information Costs and Transactions Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1455-1481, July.
    26. Philip Protter & Emmanuelle Clément & Damien Lamberton, 2002. "An analysis of a least squares regression method for American option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 449-471.
    27. Dunn, Kenneth B & McConnell, John J, 1981. "Valuation of GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 599-616, June.
    28. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    29. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly & Stavros Panageas, 2007. "Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 244-249, May.
    30. Badrinath, S G & Lewellen, Wilbur G, 1991. "Evidence on Tax-Motivated Securities Trading Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 369-382, March.
    31. Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
    32. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eickholt, Mathias, 2014. "Behavioral financial engineering in the fixed-income market: The influence of the coupon structure," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 16, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "What makes individual investors exercise early? Empirical evidence from the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2018. "What makes individual investors exercise early? Empirical evidence from non-tradable fixed-income products," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 318-334.
    2. Eickholt, Mathias & Entrop, Oliver & Wilkens, Marco, 2014. "What makes individual investors exercise early? Empirical evidence from the fixed-income market," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. Eickholt, Mathias, 2014. "Behavioral financial engineering in the fixed-income market: The influence of the coupon structure," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe 16, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Chockalingam, Arun & Feng, Haolin, 2015. "The implication of missing the optimal-exercise time of an American option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 883-896.
    6. Weihan Li & Jin E. Zhang & Xinfeng Ruan & Pakorn Aschakulporn, 2024. "An empirical study on the early exercise premium of American options: Evidence from OEX and XEO options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1117-1153, July.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 10422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jensen, Mads Vestergaard & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2016. "Early option exercise: Never say never," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 278-299.
    9. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Pederzoli, Paola & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Early Exercise Decision in American Options with Dividends, Stochastic Volatility, and Jumps," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 331-356, February.
    10. Cosma, Antonio & Galluccio, Stefano & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Valuing American options using fast recursive projections," Working Papers unige:41856, University of Geneva, Geneva School of Economics and Management.
    11. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A., 2002. "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt19k7479t, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    13. Werner Hürlimann, 2012. "Valuation of fixed and variable rate mortgages: binomial tree versus analytical approximations," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 35(2), pages 171-202, November.
    14. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    15. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    16. Hui Chen & Michael Michaux & Nikolai Roussanov, 2020. "Houses as ATMs: Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 323-375, February.
    17. Andrew Kalotay & Deane Yang & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2004. "An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model For Mortgages And Mortgage-Backed Securities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(08), pages 949-978.
    18. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    19. Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John D. & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Optimal Mortgage Reï¬ nancing: A Closed Form Solution," Scholarly Articles 9918811, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    20. Matteo Bissiri & Riccardo Cogo, 2017. "Behavioral Value Adjustments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-37, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision strategy; decision costs; transaction costs; putable bond;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:upadbr:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwpasde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.