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The Cross Section of MBS Returns

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  • PETER DIEP
  • ANDREA L. EISFELDT
  • SCOTT RICHARDSON

Abstract

We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage‐Backed Security (MBS) returns. MBS earn risk premia as compensation for their exposure to prepayment risk. We measure prepayment risk and estimate risk loadings using prepayment forecasts versus realizations. Estimated loadings on prepayment risk decrease monotonically in securities' coupons relative to the par coupon, consistent with the predicted effect of prepayment on bond value. Prepayment risk appears to be priced by specialized MBS investors. The price of prepayment risk changes sign over time with the sign of a representative MBS investor's exposure to prepayment shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Diep & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Scott Richardson, 2021. "The Cross Section of MBS Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2093-2151, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:5:p:2093-2151
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Nicola Fusari & Wei Li & Haoyang Liu & Zhaogang Song, 2022. "Asset Pricing with Cohort‐Based Trading in MBS Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3249-3287, December.
    3. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lee, Hae Kang & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2024. "Aggregate lapsation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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