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The Joint Distribution Of Stock Returns Is Not Elliptical

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  • RÉMY CHICHEPORTICHE

    (Capital Fund Management, 6–8 Boulevard Haussmann, Paris, 75009, France)

  • JEAN-PHILIPPE BOUCHAUD

    (Capital Fund Management, 6–8 Boulevard Haussmann, Paris, 75009, France)

Abstract

Using a large set of daily US and Japanese stock returns, we test in detail the relevance of Student models, and of more general elliptical models, for describing the joint distribution of returns. We find that while Student copulas provide a good approximation for strongly correlated pairs of stocks, systematic discrepancies appear as the linear correlation between stocks decreases, that rule out all elliptical models. Intuitively, the failure of elliptical models can be traced to the inadequacy of the assumption of a single volatility mode for all stocks. We suggest several ideas of methodological interest to efficiently visualise and compare different copulas. We identify the rescaled difference with the Gaussian copula and the central value of the copula as strongly discriminating observables. We insist on the need to shun away from formal choices of copulas with no financial interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The Joint Distribution Of Stock Returns Is Not Elliptical," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:15:y:2012:i:03:n:s0219024912500197
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024912500197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2008. "Multifractal Volatility: Theory, Forecasting and Pricing," Post-Print hal-00671877, HAL.
    2. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, September.
    3. Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2006. "Extreme Financial Risks : From Dependence to Risk Management," Post-Print hal-02298069, HAL.
    4. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3fc1c8hw, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Raimana Chan & Thomas Huckle & Antoine Jacquier & Aitor Muguruza, 2021. "Portfolio optimisation with options," Papers 2111.12658, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Petr Koldanov & Nina Lozgacheva, 2016. "Multiple Testing Of Sign Symmetry For Stock Return Distributions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Lasko Basnarkov & Viktor Stojkoski & Zoran Utkovski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2019. "Option Pricing With Heavy-Tailed Distributions Of Logarithmic Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-35, November.
    4. Donald Geman & H'elyette Geman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2014. "Tail Risk Constraints and Maximum Entropy," Papers 1412.7647, arXiv.org.
    5. Koldanov, A. & Koldanov, P. & Semenov, D., 2021. "Confidence set for connected stocks of stock market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 12-34.
    6. Simon Hediger & Jeffrey Näf & Marc S. Paolella & Paweł Polak, 2023. "Heterogeneous tail generalized common factor modeling," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 389-420, June.
    7. Broda, Simon A. & Krause, Jochen & Paolella, Marc S., 2018. "Approximating expected shortfall for heavy-tailed distributions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 184-203.
    8. Fung, Thomas & Seneta, Eugene, 2016. "Tail asymptotics for the bivariate skew normal," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 129-138.
    9. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "A nested factor model for non-linear dependences in stock returns," Papers 1309.3102, arXiv.org.
    10. Fung, Thomas & Seneta, Eugene, 2014. "Convergence rate to a lower tail dependence coefficient of a skew-t distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 62-72.
    11. Bücher Axel & Jaser Miriam & Min Aleksey, 2021. "Detecting departures from meta-ellipticity for multivariate stationary time series," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 121-140, January.
    12. Petr Koldanov, 2019. "Testing new property of elliptical model for stock returns distribution," Papers 1907.10306, arXiv.org.

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