IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v03y2000i04ns0219024900000838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Investigation Of The Forward Interest Rate Term Structure

Author

Listed:
  • ANDREW MATACZ

    (Science and Finance, 109-111 rue Victor Hugo, 92532 Levallois, France)

  • JEAN-PHILIPPE BOUCHAUD

    (Science and Finance, 109-111 rue Victor Hugo, 92532 Levallois, France;
    Service de Physique de l'Etat Condensé, CEA-Saclay, Orme des Merisiers 91 191 Gif s/ Yvette, France)

Abstract

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of a previous investigation of the U.S. FRC. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk-like pricing. We find a striking correlation between the instantaneous FRC and the past spot trend over a certain time horizon, in agreement with the idea of an extrapolated trend effect. We present a model which can be adequately calibrated to account for these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Matacz & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation Of The Forward Interest Rate Term Structure," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 703-729.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:03:y:2000:i:04:n:s0219024900000838
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024900000838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024900000838
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024900000838?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carl Chiarella & Oh-Kang Kwon, 1999. "Classes of Interest Rate Models Under the HJM Framework," Research Paper Series 13, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Nicolas Sagna & Rama Cont & Nicole El-Karoui & Marc Potters, 1999. "Phenomenology of the interest rate curve," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 209-232.
    3. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen, 2005. "An Alternative Interest Rate Term Structure Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 717-735.
    2. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007, January-A.
    3. Belal E. Baaquie & Marakani Srikant & Mitch C. Warachka, 2003. "A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied to Hedging," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(05), pages 443-467.
    4. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen & Erik Schlögl, 2009. "Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, March.
    5. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
    6. Tiziana Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2002. "How Does The Eurodollar Interest Rate Behave?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 107-122.
    7. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.
    8. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    9. Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Dragan Sestovic, 2000. "Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500031, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    10. Baaquie, Belal E. & Liang, Cui & Warachka, Mitch C., 2007. "Hedging LIBOR derivatives in a field theory model of interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 730-748.
    11. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe & Sestovic, Dragan, 2001. "Hedged Monte-Carlo: low variance derivative pricing with objective probabilities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 517-525.
    12. Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500064, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    13. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2014. "Stylised Properties of the Interest Rate Term Structure Under The Benchmark Approach," Research Paper Series 351, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Belal E. Baaquie & Marakani Srikant & Mitch Warachka, 2002. "A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied to Hedging," Papers cond-mat/0206457, arXiv.org.
    16. Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Papers cond-mat/0403713, arXiv.org.
    17. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Matacz & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2000. "Explaining The Forward Interest Rate Term Structure," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 381-389.
    2. Eckhard Platen, 2005. "An Alternative Interest Rate Term Structure Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 717-735.
    3. Raphaël Douady, 2013. "Yield Curve Smoothing and Residual Variance of Fixed Income Positions," Post-Print hal-00666751, HAL.
    4. Tiziana Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2002. "How Does The Eurodollar Interest Rate Behave?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 107-122.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Sara Pasquali & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2001. "On Filtering in Markovian Term Structure Models (An Approximation Approach)," Research Paper Series 65, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chiarella, Carl & Clewlow, Les & Musti, Silvana, 2005. "A volatility decomposition control variate technique for Monte Carlo simulations of Heath Jarrow Morton models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 325-336, March.
    8. Jury Falini, 2009. "Pricing caps with HJM models: the benefits of humped volatility," Department of Economics University of Siena 563, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2007, January-A.
    10. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    11. Shane Miller, 2007. "Pricing of Contingent Claims Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 25, July-Dece.
    12. Baaquie, Belal E. & Liang, Cui & Warachka, Mitch C., 2007. "Hedging LIBOR derivatives in a field theory model of interest rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 730-748.
    13. Chang, Chia-Chien, 2014. "Valuation Of Mortgage Insurance Contracts With Counterparty Default Risk: Reduced-Form Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 303-334, May.
    14. Belal E. Baaquie & Marakani Srikant & Mitch Warachka, 2002. "A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied to Hedging," Papers cond-mat/0206457, arXiv.org.
    15. Belal E. Baaquie, 2001. "Quantum Field Theory of Forward Rates with Stochastic Volatility," Papers cond-mat/0110506, arXiv.org.
    16. Rene Carmona & Michael Tehranchi, 2004. "A Characterization of Hedging Portfolios for Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Papers math/0407119, arXiv.org.
    17. D. Sornette, 1998. "``String'' formulation of the Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve," Papers cond-mat/9802136, arXiv.org.
    18. Ballotta, Laura & Haberman, Steven, 2006. "The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 195-214, February.
    19. Belal Baaquie & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. ""Stiff" Field Theory of Interest Rates and Psychological Future Time," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500064, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    20. Antje Berndt & Peter Ritchken & Zhiqiang Sun, "undated". "On Correlation Effects and Default Clustering in Credit Models," GSIA Working Papers 2008-E36, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    21. Rama Cont, 1999. "Modeling interest rate dynamics: an infinite-dimensional approach," Papers cond-mat/9902018, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:03:y:2000:i:04:n:s0219024900000838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.