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Exploring Two Inflationary Regimes In Latin-American Economies: A Binary Time Series Analysis

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  • JUAN GABRIEL BRIDA

    (School of Economics and Management, Free University of Bolzano, Bolzano, 39100, Italy)

  • NICOLAS GARRIDO

    (Department of Economics, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Antofagasta, Chile)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to apply the methods of Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) to a series of inflation from a group of Latin-American economies. Starting with a partition of two inflation regimes, we use data symbolization for identifying temporal patterns. Afterwards the statistical information obtained from the patterns is used to estimate the parameters of a nonlinear model proposed by Brida (2000).1We compare the performance of the model against a naive benchmark predictor to verify its power to anticipate the qualitative behavior of the inflation time series. When the use of STSA is made through pure optimization criteria, the performance of the model is poor. However, when the partition of the space of states is made according to economics intuition, the performance of the model increases considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Gabriel Brida & Nicolas Garrido, 2006. "Exploring Two Inflationary Regimes In Latin-American Economies: A Binary Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 343-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:17:y:2006:i:03:n:s0129183106008509
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183106008509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colacchio, Giorgio & Soci, Anna, 2004. "Erratum to "On the aggregate production function and its presence in modern macroeconomics": [Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 14 (2003) 75-107]," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-239, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Gabriel Brida & Silvia London & Lionello Punzo & Wiston Adrian Risso, 2011. "An Alternative View of the Convergence Issue of Growth Empirics," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 320-350, September.
    2. Brida, Juan Gabriel & London, Silvia & Risso, Wilson Adrián, 2010. "Economic performance clubs in the Americas: 1955-2003," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    3. Brida, Juan Gabriel & London, Silvia & Rojas, Mara, 2013. "Una aplicación de los árboles de expansión mínima y árboles jerárquicos al estudio de la convergencia interregional en dinámica de regímenes || An Application of Minimum Spanning Trees and Hierarchica," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 3-28, June.
    4. BRIDA, Juan Gabriel & GARRIDo, Nicolas & MUREDDU, Francesco, 2014. "Club Performance Dynamics At Italian Regional Level," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68.
    5. Brida, Juan Gabriel & London, Silvia & Rojas, Mara, 2012. "Convergencia interregional en dinámica de regimenes: el caso del Mercosur [Regional convergence of dynamic of regimens: the case of Mercosur]," MPRA Paper 36863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Juan Brida & Wiston Risso, 2010. "Dynamics and Structure of the 30 Largest North American Companies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 85-99, January.

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