IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijfexx/v05y2018i04ns2424786318500342.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting dirty tanker freight rate index by using stochastic differential equations

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Jafari

    (Department of Mathematics, Chabahar Maritime University, Iran)

  • Ghazaleh Rahimi

    (Navigation Engineering Department, Chabahar Maritime University, Iran)

Abstract

The accurate forecasting of freight rate index is one of the most important issues in shipping market. The continuous and jump-diffusion stochastic differential equations are used for modeling and forecasting of Baltic exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI). Actual observations and simulated data are applied to estimate the best stochastic model. The comparison of forecasting between SDE methods and the ARIMA time series models show that SDE models have better accuracy than the time series techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Jafari & Ghazaleh Rahimi, 2018. "Forecasting dirty tanker freight rate index by using stochastic differential equations," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:05:y:2018:i:04:n:s2424786318500342
    DOI: 10.1142/S2424786318500342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2424786318500342
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2424786318500342?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    2. Manolis G Kavussanos, 2003. "Time Varying Risks Among Segments of the Tanker Freight Markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(3), pages 227-250, September.
    3. Lu Jing & Peter B. Marlow & Wang Hui, 2008. "An analysis of freight rate volatility in dry bulk shipping markets," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 237-251, June.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2009. "Shipping Derivatives and Risk Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-23580-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Drobetz & Tim Richter & Martin Wambach, 2012. "Dynamics of time-varying volatility in the dry bulk and tanker freight markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1367-1384, August.
    2. Carol Alexandra & Leonardo M. Nogueira, 2005. "Optimal Hedging and Scale Inavriance: A Taxonomy of Option Pricing Models," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading, revised Nov 2005.
    3. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2014. "Static Hedging of Standard Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-46.
    4. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    5. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.
    6. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    8. Carvalho, Augusto & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2018. "State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 66-78.
    9. Jurczenko, Emmanuel & Maillet, Bertrand & Negrea, Bogdan, 2002. "Revisited multi-moment approximate option pricing models: a general comparison (Part 1)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Viktor Stojkoski & Trifce Sandev & Lasko Basnarkov & Ljupco Kocarev & Ralf Metzler, 2020. "Generalised geometric Brownian motion: Theory and applications to option pricing," Papers 2011.00312, arXiv.org.
    11. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    12. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2019. "A Volatility Smile-Based Uncertainty Index," Working Papers Series 502, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    14. Karl Friedrich Mina & Gerald H. L. Cheang & Carl Chiarella, 2015. "Approximate Hedging Of Options Under Jump-Diffusion Processes," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(04), pages 1-26.
    15. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Li, Zhe & Zhuang, Le, 2017. "European option pricing under the Student’s t noise with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 848-858.
    16. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    17. Ciprian Necula & Gabriel Drimus & Walter Farkas, 2019. "A general closed form option pricing formula," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-40, April.
    18. Yongxin Yang & Yu Zheng & Timothy M. Hospedales, 2016. "Gated Neural Networks for Option Pricing: Rationality by Design," Papers 1609.07472, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    19. Nan Chen & S. G. Kou, 2009. "Credit Spreads, Optimal Capital Structure, And Implied Volatility With Endogenous Default And Jump Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 343-378, July.
    20. Semih Yon & Cafer Erhan Bozdag, 2014. "Test of Log-Normal Process with Importance Sampling for Options Pricing," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401571, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:05:y:2018:i:04:n:s2424786318500342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/ijfe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.