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Polityczny cykl koniunkturalny w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej [ Political Business Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe ]

Author

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  • Przemysław Pacześ

Abstract

Celem opracowania jest próba odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy polityka fiskalna wybranych państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w okresie poprzedzającym akcesję do UE wykazywała symptomy oddziaływania czynników ocharakterze politycznym. Autor zwraca uwagę na rozbieŜności w zakresie prowadzonej polityki fiskalnej w okresie poprzedzającym akcesjędo UE pomiędzy mniejszymi a większymi państwami Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. W szczególności podejmuje próbę odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy jednym z czynników mających wpływ na wysoki poziomu nierównowagi w zakresie finansów publicznych, spowodowanej ekspansywną polityką fiskalną w Polsce, Czechach i na Węgrzech w latach poprzedzających akcesjędo UE, mógł być kalendarz wyborczy. Doświadczenia wybranych państw Europy ŚrodkowoWschodniej wskazują, iŜczynniki polityczne mogły odegraćrolęw kształtowaniu się deficytu budŜetowego. Jednocześnie pokazują, iŜ problematyka politycznego cyklu koniunkturalnego jest aktualna równieŜw UE. Choćna podstawie przeprowadzonych rozwaŜań stwierdzono, iŜ relacja średniego deficytu budŜetowego w Polsce, w Czechach i na Węgrzech w okresach wyborczych i przedwyborczych przypomina relacjęcharakterystycznądla państw o dojrzałych tradycjach demokratycznych, gdzie zgodnie z teoriąryzyko oportunistycznych zachowańsprawujących władzępolityków powinno być niŜsze, wydaje się, Ŝe w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej czynniki polityczne mogą mieć wpływ na procesy ekonomiczne równieŜ w czasach dzisiejszych. [ The objective of the research paper is to address the question whether fiscal policy of selected central and Eastern Europe’s countries within the time preceding their accession to the EU showed symptoms of influence exerted by factors of political nature. The author points to discrepancies of the fiscal policy pursued in the preaccession time by smaller and larger states of CEE. Notably he tries to answer the question whether elections schedule might have beenone of the factors influencing the high level of imbalance in public finance caused by the expansive fiscal policy in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The experience of the selected Central and Eastern European countries proves the political factors might have played a role in the occurrence of the budgetary deficit. Simultaneously their experience shows that the issue of political business cycle is characteristicfor the EU as well. Although on the basis of the research it has been found out that relation of median budget deficit in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary in election and pre-election time resembles the one typical for the states with deeply-rooted democratic traditions where, theoretically, the risk of opportunist behaviour ofruling politicians should be lower, it seems that in CEE political factors might influence economic process these days as well. ]

Suggested Citation

  • Przemysław Pacześ, 2012. "Polityczny cykl koniunkturalny w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej [ Political Business Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe ]," Prace i Materiały, Instytut Rozwoju Gospodarczego (SGH), vol. 88(1), pages 119-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsd:irgpim:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:119-139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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