IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/soecon/v71y2005i3p661-667.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: A Reexamination of the Modern Quantity Theory's Linchpin Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Harold J. Brumm

Abstract

A testable implication of the modern quantity theory of money, when viewed as a theory of inflation, is the joint hypothesis that (i) there is a one‐to‐one positive relationship between inflation and the money stock growth rate, (ii) there is a one‐to‐one negative relationship between inflation and the aggregate output growth rate, and (iii) there are no other determinants of inflation besides the money stock and aggregate output expansion rates. This implication is the theory's linchpin prediction. A recent prior study published in this journal examines cross‐country data and reports that this hypothesis cannot be rejected. The present study reexamines the prior study's data and finds that the joint hypothesis is decisively rejected, an unpleasant finding from a monetarist perspective. The article then goes on to propose an alternative to the prior study's model of the inflation process and reports findings that are, from the perspective of a monetarist, at least mildly pleasant.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold J. Brumm, 2005. "Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: A Reexamination of the Modern Quantity Theory's Linchpin Prediction," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 661-667, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:71:y:2005:i:3:p:661-667
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2005.tb00665.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2005.tb00665.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/j.2325-8012.2005.tb00665.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 2001. "Does inflation matter for growth?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 405-428, December.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Rik Hafer & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "The rise and fall of a policy rule: monetarism at the St. Louis Fed, 1968-1986," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jan), pages 1-24.
    4. John R. Moroney, 2002. "Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 398-413, October.
    5. Temple, Jonathan, 1999. "A positive effect of human capital on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 131-134, October.
    6. Dewald, William G & Thursby, Jerry G & Anderson, Richard G, 1986. "Replication in Empirical Economics: The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 587-603, September.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: how long is the long run?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-231, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng-Wen Lee & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2021. "Reexamining The Quantity Theory Of Money: An Empirical Analysis From The Joint Hypothesis," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-12, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng-Wen Lee & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2021. "Reexamining The Quantity Theory Of Money: An Empirical Analysis From The Joint Hypothesis," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-12, May.
    2. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    3. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Yannis Psycharis & Vassilis Tselios, 2012. "Public investment and regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 543-568, August.
    4. González, Maximiliano & Guzmán, Alexander & Pombo, Carlos & Trujillo, María Andréa, 2012. "Family involvement and dividend policy in listed and non-listed firms," Galeras. Working Papers Series 034, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
    5. Craig Depken, 1999. "Free-Agency and the Competitiveness of Major League Baseball," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 14(3), pages 205-217, May.
    6. DELL'ANNO, Roberto & VILLA, Stefania, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    7. Oded Palmon & Ben J. Sopranzetti, 2017. "On the relationship between the number of a broker’s real estate listings and transaction outcomes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 65-89, July.
    8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    9. Eleftherios Angelopoulos & Antonios Georgopoulos, 2015. "The Determinants of Shareholder Value in Retail Banking During Crisis Years: The Case of Greece," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(2), pages 109-147, June.
    10. Ali Uyar & Simone Pizzi & Fabio Caputo & Cemil Kuzey & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2022. "Do shareholders reward or punish risky firms due to CSR reporting and assurance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1596-1620, July.
    11. Volonté, Christophe, 2015. "Boards: Independent and committed directors?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 25-37.
    12. Busse, Matthias, 2004. "On the determinants of core labour standards: the case of developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 211-217, May.
    13. Michael O'Connor Keefe & David Gallagher, 2014. "Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 921-964, September.
    14. Guilhem Bascle, 2008. "Controlling for endogeneity with instrumental variables in strategic management research," Post-Print hal-00576795, HAL.
    15. Olivier Damette & Philippe Delacote, 2009. "The environmental resource curse hypothesis : the forest case [L'hypothèse de malédiction environnemental des ressources : le cas des forêts]," Working Papers hal-01189378, HAL.
    16. Krishna Dayal Pandey & Tarak Nath Sahu, 2019. "Debt Financing, Agency Cost and Firm Performance: Evidence from India," Vision, , vol. 23(3), pages 267-274, September.
    17. Robert L. Lippert & William T. Moore, 1994. "Compensation Contracts Of Chief Executive Officers: Determinants Of Pay-Performance Sensitivity," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 321-332, September.
    18. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    19. Migliardo, Carlo, 2012. "Heterogeneity in price setting behavior, spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1106-1118.
    20. Michael Rusinek & François Rycx, 2013. "Rent-Sharing under Different Bargaining Regimes: Evidence from Linked Employer–Employee Data," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 28-58, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:71:y:2005:i:3:p:661-667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2325-8012 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.