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Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment

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  • Thomas R. Stewart
  • Thomas M. Leschine

Abstract

The risk of oil spills is a major environmental issue in the siting of proposed coastal refineries, oil terminals, deepwater ports, and in the leasing of offshore lands for oil exploration and development. As with any kind of risk, oil spill risk assessment is inherently judgmental and no analytic method can eliminate the need for judgment. This paper compares representative examples of oil spill risk assessments with regard to decisions about data, variables, functional relations, and uncertainty. The comparison emphasizes the judgmental basis of analytic methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Stewart & Thomas M. Leschine, 1986. "Judgment and Analysis in Oil Spill Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 305-315, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:6:y:1986:i:3:p:305-315
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00223.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Einhorn, Hj & Hogarth, Rm, 1981. "Behavioral Decision-Theory - Processes Of Judgment And Choice," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 1-31.
    2. Robert B. Cumming, 1983. "Risk Assessment and the Governmental Policy‐Making Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 1-3, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
    2. Atiq Siddiqui & Manish Verma, 2013. "An Expected Consequence Approach to Route Choice in the Maritime Transportation of Crude Oil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(11), pages 2041-2055, November.
    3. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hileman, Jacob D. & Angst, Mario & Scott, Tyler A. & Sundström, Emma, 2021. "Recycled text and risk communication in natural gas pipeline environmental impact assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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