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An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications

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  • Terje Aven

Abstract

To solve real‐life problems—such as those related to technology, health, security, or climate change—and make suitable decisions, risk is nearly always a main issue. Different types of sciences are often supporting the work, for example, statistics, natural sciences, and social sciences. Risk analysis approaches and methods are also commonly used, but risk analysis is not broadly accepted as a science in itself. A key problem is the lack of explanatory power and large uncertainties when assessing risk. This article presents an emerging new risk analysis science based on novel ideas and theories on risk analysis developed in recent years by the risk analysis community. It builds on a fundamental change in thinking, from the search for accurate predictions and risk estimates, to knowledge generation related to concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods, and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and (in a broad sense) manage risk. Examples are used to illustrate the importance of this distinct/separate risk analysis science for solving risk problems, supporting science in general and other disciplines in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Terje Aven, 2018. "An Emerging New Risk Analysis Science: Foundations and Implications," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(5), pages 876-888, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:5:p:876-888
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 51-57.
    10. Sven Ove Hansson & Terje Aven, 2014. "Is Risk Analysis Scientific?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1173-1183, July.
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    1. Terje Aven, 2020. "Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(10), pages 1889-1899, October.
    2. Langdalen, Henrik & Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Abrahamsen, HÃ¥kon Bjorheim, 2020. "A New Framework To Idenitfy And Assess Hidden Assumptions In The Background Knowledge Of A Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Liangdong Lu & Hong Huang & Jiuchang Wei & Jia Xu, 2020. "Safety Regulations and the Uncertainty of Work‐Related Road Accident Loss: The Triple Identity of Chinese Local Governments Under Principal–Agent Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1168-1182, June.
    4. Alejandro Lara & Felipe Bucci & Cristobal Palma & Juan Munizaga & Victor Montre-Águila, 2021. "Development, urban planning and political decisions. A triad that built territories at risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1935-1957, November.
    5. Marshall, Alasdair & Ojiako, Udechukwu & Wang, Victoria & Lin, Fenfang & Chipulu, Maxwell, 2019. "Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 644-658.
    6. Abrahamsen, Eirik Bjorheim & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Langdalen, Henrik & Dahl, Roy Endre & Bansal, Surbhi & Abrahamsen, Håkon Bjorheim, 2021. "On the use of the ‘Return Of Safety Investments’ (ROSI) measure for decision-making in the chemical processing industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    7. Liu, Peng & Zhang, Yawen & He, Zhen, 2019. "The effect of population age on the acceptable safety of self-driving vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 341-347.
    8. Divya Choudhary & Ravi Shankar & Alok Choudhary, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 858-883, April.
    9. Aven, Terje, 2018. "Perspectives on the nexus between good risk communication and high scientific risk analysis quality," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 290-296.
    10. Terje Aven & Roger Flage, 2020. "Foundational Challenges for Advancing the Field and Discipline of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2128-2136, November.
    11. Peng Wan & Junwu Wang & Ye Liu & Qizhi Lu & Chunbao Yuan, 2022. "On Risk Probability of Prefabricated Building Hoisting Construction Based on Multiple Correlations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Aven, Terje, 2021. "The reliability science: Its foundation and link to risk science and other sciences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Terje Aven, 2019. "The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1196-1203, June.
    14. Dominic Balog‐Way & Katherine McComas & John Besley, 2020. "The Evolving Field of Risk Communication," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2240-2262, November.
    15. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

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