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Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record

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  • Alison C. Cullen
  • C. Leigh Anderson

Abstract

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers’ perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate‐related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate‐related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate‐related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response.

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  • Alison C. Cullen & C. Leigh Anderson, 2017. "Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 531-545, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:3:p:531-545
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duc, T.P. & Waibel, H., 2010. "Diversification in land and labor allocation in response to shocks among small-scale farmers in central Vietnam," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    2. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    3. Schipper, Lisa, 2006. "Climate risk, perceptions and development in El Salvador," IWMI Working Papers H042374, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Mano, Reneth & Nhemachena, Charles, 2007. "Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4292, The World Bank.
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    1. Alison C. Cullen & C. Leigh Anderson & Pierre Biscaye & Travis W. Reynolds, 2018. "Variability in Cross‐Domain Risk Perception among Smallholder Farmers in Mali by Gender and Other Demographic and Attitudinal Characteristics," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1361-1377, July.
    2. Connor, Melanie & de Guia, Annalyn H. & Quilloy, Reianne & Van Nguyen, Hung & Gummert, Martin & Sander, Bjoern Ole, 2020. "When climate change is not psychologically distant – Factors influencing the acceptance of sustainable farming practices in the Mekong river Delta of Vietnam," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    3. Emileva, Begaiym & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Glauben, Thomas, 2023. "The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41, pages 1-1.
    4. Esteban J. Quiñones & Sabine Liebenehm & Rasadhika Sharma, "undated". "Left Home High and Dry-Reduced Migration in Response to Repeated Droughts in Thailand and Vietnam," Mathematica Policy Research Reports ac2ba236e1b8428fbeb6d8b43, Mathematica Policy Research.
    5. Adrian Brügger & Robert Tobias & Fredy S. Monge-Rodríguez, 2021. "Public Perceptions of Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, March.
    6. Madhuri & Upasna Sharma, 2020. "How do farmers perceive climate change? A systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 991-1010, October.

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