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Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents

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  • Spencer Wheatley
  • Benjamin Sovacool
  • Didier Sornette

Abstract

We perform a statistical study of risk in nuclear energy systems. This study provides and analyzes a data set that is twice the size of the previous best data set on nuclear incidents and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: the industry standard International Nuclear Event Scale, the Nuclear Accident Magnitude Scale of radiation release, and cost in U.S. dollars. The rate of nuclear accidents with cost above 20 MM 2013 USD, per reactor per year, has decreased from the 1970s until the present time. Along the way, the rate dropped significantly after Chernobyl (April 1986) and is expected to be roughly stable around a level of 0.003, suggesting an average of just over one event per year across the current global fleet. The distribution of costs appears to have changed following the Three Mile Island major accident (March 1979). The median cost became approximately 3.5 times smaller, but an extremely heavy tail emerged, being well described by a Pareto distribution with parameter α = 0.5–0.6. For instance, the cost of the two largest events, Chernobyl and Fukushima (March 2011), is equal to nearly five times the sum of the 173 other events. We also document a significant runaway disaster regime in both radiation release and cost data, which we associate with the “dragon‐king” phenomenon. Since the major accident at Fukushima (March 2011) occurred recently, we are unable to quantify an impact of the industry response to this disaster. Excluding such improvements, in terms of costs, our range of models suggests that there is presently a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs every 60–150 years, and (ii) that a Three Mile Island event (or larger) occurs every 10–20 years. Further—even assuming that it is no longer possible to suffer an event more costly than Chernobyl or Fukushima—the expected annual cost and its standard error bracket the cost of a new plant. This highlights the importance of improvements not only immediately following Fukushima, but also deeper improvements to effectively exclude the possibility of “dragon‐king” disasters. Finally, we find that the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is inconsistent in terms of both cost and radiation released. To be consistent with cost data, the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters would need to have between an INES level of 10 and 11, rather than the maximum of 7.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer Wheatley & Benjamin Sovacool & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 99-115, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:1:p:99-115
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12587
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Bizet, Romain & Bonev, Petyo & Lévêque, François, 2022. "Are Older Nuclear Reactors Less Safe? Evidence from France," Economics Working Paper Series 2216, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Khan, Anwar & Min, Jialin & Hassan Shah, Wasi Ul & Li, Qianwen & Sun, Chuanwang, 2024. "Efficacy of CO2 emission reduction strategies by countries pursuing energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    6. Chen, Shi & Huang, Fu-Wei & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2023. "Green technology choices under the cap-and-trade mechanism with insurer green finance in a dragon-king environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. John Downer & M. V. Ramana, 2021. "Empires built on sand: On the fundamental implausibility of reactor safety assessments and the implications for nuclear regulation," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 1304-1325, October.
    8. Fanny Dellinger & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2018. "An EU-wide Nuclear Power Tax: Rationale and Possible Effects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 346-353.
    9. Choi, Donghyun & Kim, Yeong Jae, 2023. "Local and global experience curves for lumpy and granular energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Glette-Iversen, Ingrid & Aven, Terje, 2021. "On the meaning of and relationship between dragon-kings, black swans and related concepts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    11. Ayoub, Ali & Stankovski, Andrej & Kröger, Wolfgang & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "Precursors and startling lessons: Statistical analysis of 1250 events with safety significance from the civil nuclear sector," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Zheng, Shanshan & Wang, Derek D., 2024. "The local economic impacts of mega nuclear accident: A synthetic control analysis of Fukushima," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Bizet, Romain & Bonev, Petyo & Leveque, Francois, 2020. "The effect of local monitoring on nuclear safety and compliance: Evidence from France," Economics Working Paper Series 2014, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    14. Hyunsoo Lee & Woo Chang Cha, 2019. "Virtual Reality-Based Ergonomic Modeling and Evaluation Framework for Nuclear Power Plant Operation and Control," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Li, Xuelian & Lu, Tinghui & Lin, Jyh-Horng & Lai, Yingkuan, 2023. "Assessing insurer green finance in response to manufacturing carbon emissions trading in a dragon-king environment: A capped barrier cap option approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. Christian C. Blanco & Felipe Caro & Charles J. Corbett, 2019. "Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2197-2213, October.
    17. Bizet, Romain & Bonev, Petyo & Lévêque, François, 2022. "The effect of local monitoring on nuclear safety and compliance: Evidence from France," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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