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A Farm Transmission Model for Salmonella in Pigs, Applicable to E.U. Member States

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  • Andrew A. Hill
  • Robin R. L. Simons
  • Louise Kelly
  • Emma L. Snary

Abstract

The burden of Salmonella entering pig slaughterhouses across the European Union is considered a primary food safety concern. To assist E.U. member states with the development of national control plans, we have developed a farm transmission model applicable to all member states. It is an individual‐based stochastic susceptible‐infected model that takes into account four different sources of infection of pigs (sows, feed, external contaminants such as rodents, and new stock) and various management practices linked to Salmonella transmission/protection (housing, flooring, feed, all‐in‐all‐out production). A novel development within the model is the assessment of dynamic shedding rates. The results of the model, parameterized for two case study member states (one high and one low prevalence) suggest that breeding herd prevalence is a strong indicator of slaughter pig prevalence. Until a member state's’ breeding herd prevalence is brought below 10%, the sow will be the dominant source of infection to pigs raised for meat production; below this level of breeding herd prevalence, feed becomes the dominant force of infection.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew A. Hill & Robin R. L. Simons & Louise Kelly & Emma L. Snary, 2016. "A Farm Transmission Model for Salmonella in Pigs, Applicable to E.U. Member States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 461-481, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:3:p:461-481
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Summary for 2005," Working Papers 29, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
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