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Effect of Climate Change on the Concentration and Associated Risks of Vibrio Spp. in Dutch Recreational Waters

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  • Ankie Sterk
  • Franciska M. Schets
  • Ana Maria de Roda Husman
  • Ton de Nijs
  • Jack F. Schijven

Abstract

Currently, the number of reported cases of recreational‐ water‐related Vibrio illness in the Netherlands is low. However, a notable higher incidence of Vibrio infections has been observed in warm summers. In the future, such warm summers are expected to occur more often, resulting in enhanced water temperatures favoring Vibrio growth. Quantitative information on the increase in concentration of Vibrio spp. in recreational water under climate change scenarios is lacking. In this study, data on occurrence of Vibrio spp. at six different bathing sites in the Netherlands (2009–2012) were used to derive an empirical formula to predict the Vibrio concentration as a function of temperature, salinity, and pH. This formula was used to predict the effects of increased temperatures in climate change scenarios on Vibrio concentrations. For Vibrio parahaemolyticus, changes in illness risks associated with the changed concentrations were calculated as well. For an average temperature increase of 3.7 °C, these illness risks were calculated to be two to three times higher than in the current situation. Current illness risks were, varying per location, on average between 10−4 and 10−2 per person for an entire summer. In situations where water temperatures reached maximum values, illness risks are estimated to be up to 10−2 and 10−1. If such extreme situations occur more often during future summers, increased numbers of ill bathers or bathing‐water‐related illness outbreaks may be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ankie Sterk & Franciska M. Schets & Ana Maria de Roda Husman & Ton de Nijs & Jack F. Schijven, 2015. "Effect of Climate Change on the Concentration and Associated Risks of Vibrio Spp. in Dutch Recreational Waters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(9), pages 1717-1729, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:9:p:1717-1729
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12365
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter F. M. Teunis & Nico J. D. Nagelkerke & Charles N. Haas, 1999. "Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1251-1260, December.
    2. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
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    1. Brett Froelich & Raul Gonzalez & Denene Blackwood & Kellen Lauer & Rachel Noble, 2019. "Decadal monitoring reveals an increase in Vibrio spp. concentrations in the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, USA," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Rosalie Sacheli & Camille Philippe & Cécile Meex & Samy Mzougui & Pierrette Melin & Marie-Pierre Hayette, 2023. "Occurrence of Vibrio spp. in Selected Recreational Water Bodies in Belgium during 2021 Bathing Season," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(20), pages 1-13, October.
    3. João Brandão & Chelsea Weiskerger & Elisabete Valério & Tarja Pitkänen & Päivi Meriläinen & Lindsay Avolio & Christopher D. Heaney & Michael J. Sadowsky, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-15, January.

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