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Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time‐Related Factors in Exposure and Risk

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  • Suresh H. Moolgavkar
  • Ellen T. Chang
  • Georg Luebeck
  • Edmund C. Lau
  • Heather N. Watson
  • Kenny S. Crump
  • Paolo Boffetta
  • Roger McClellan

Abstract

To develop a quantitative exposure‐response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC‐associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure‐response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.

Suggested Citation

  • Suresh H. Moolgavkar & Ellen T. Chang & Georg Luebeck & Edmund C. Lau & Heather N. Watson & Kenny S. Crump & Paolo Boffetta & Roger McClellan, 2015. "Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time‐Related Factors in Exposure and Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 663-675, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:35:y:2015:i:4:p:663-675
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12315
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang F. Heidenreich & E. Georg Luebeck & Suresh H. Moolgavkar, 1997. "Some Properties of the Hazard Function of the Two‐Mutation Clonal Expansion Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 391-399, June.
    2. Stanley V. Dawson & George V. Alexeeff, 2001. "Multi‐Stage Model Estimates of Lung Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Exhaust, Based on a U.S. Railroad Worker Cohort," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Mark P Little & Wolfgang F Heidenreich & Guangquan Li, 2009. "Parameter Identifiability and Redundancy in a General Class of Stochastic Carcinogenesis Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-6, December.
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    1. Kenny S. Crump & Cynthia Van Landingham & Roger O. McClellan, 2016. "Influence of Alternative Exposure Estimates in the Diesel Exhaust Miners Study: Diesel Exhaust and Lung Cancer," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(9), pages 1803-1812, September.

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